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Housing market gonna take a dump in the next year?

Landslide

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With big banks failing and inflation growing daily, something has to give right? Sure seems ripe for something to happen

Just watched a couple videos on the insane housing market in Florida and what’s happening there right now. I don’t see how a start up family can afford to buy and own a home on basic income really. Florida is a right to work state and I don’t think the average pay scale is all that high but I really don’t know. It’s been ten or so years since I’ve visited Florida and I used to go there a lot in the 80’s and 90’s scuba diving. Was making plans back then to move down there too.

Some of the interesting things that have increased the cost of home ownership there is every home has to have a roof no older the ten years of age. If it goes older than this, insurance will drop your policy. They said a bunch of insurance companies have pulled out of Florida completely and I know this is true for Louisiana as well. If your home is under financing, it is required to have insurance coverage on your home.

Real estate taxes have more than doubled in the last few years in Florida as well. Home maintenance or remodeling cost have skyrocketed as well. If you’re in an HOA, those fees have increased substantially as well. This isn’t even getting into the higher utility cost (it was started in the video water bills have increased more then double, a monthly $300 bill is now $700). Plus just day to day cost of higher priced groceries and fuel.

It sure looks like the ice berg is about to tip over and show it’s ugly underside.

A bit of a long video but this guy makes for a very convincing story.

 
Market is not going the way of 2008.
Way too many people would like it to do so.

Planning on moving out of Utah next year, will go from there. House just increased some again.
They have to steal, err I mean get monies via inflated values/higher property taxes...
 
Market is not going the way of 2008.
Way too many people would like it to do so.

Planning on moving out of Utah next year, will go from there. House just increased some again.
They have to steal, err I mean get monies via inflated values/higher property taxes...
Good, Utah is sick of you.
 
There might be certain areas that have a correction, but the whole market is not going to take a dump.

I would never live in Florida. WAY too fawking hot.
 
They've been saying it's going to for the past 2.5 years. Any guess on here is as good as shaking a magic 8 ball.
 
way to much money on the sidelines waiting to get in.
This is the way I see it too. How much is unknown but my feeling is way more than we would think.

If there is a dip there's so many people waiting with cash that they will all dive in and drive demand back up.

My bet is at best it will level off, but more than likely trend historically vs what happened over the last few years. Hope I'm wrong, I'm one of those on the sidelines
 
I hope it crashes. Hard. There's nothing in a crash for me but the venn diagram between "the people who would get fucked in a real-estate crash" and "the people who deserve to get fucked that bad and worse because they're shitty people" is too close to a perfect circle to not root for it.
 
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I think you are correct but FL is a bit of an anomaly for your comparison.

At least where I live I’d say the market has slowed but prices remain steady based on less houses on the market. This is most likely since the # of snow birds has decreased dramatically since they all permanently moved here at some point since Covid happened.

As far as insurance it’s insane. A lot of companies have abandoned FL so there are only a few options. Some will give you 20 years on a roof but you pay through the nose. They also barely lower it if you get a new one. My buddies just went up 500 a month and he has a nice but “normal” home.

I’m not sure if you’re talking property or real estate taxes. Property taxes as anywhere go up when a house is purchased at a higher value than previously(resets the appraised value). We also have something called homestead, other states have different versions. If it’s your primary residence you get a slight discount and taxes can only be raised x% a year. Making the landlords and people with vacation homes pay a little more.
 
Market is not going the way of 2008.

We are in 2007. The crash didn't occur until the bottom fell out of the economy in 2008 and millions of people suddenly were forced to sell their houses.

Of course, the government will come up with all sorts of ways to prevent the necessary reset from taking place. With the enthusiastic support of the republicans (think of the children!) :mad3:
 
Here's my personal experience, having finally said fuck Colorado and left it for Fl two years ago.

The market was insane when we bought. We got caught up in it and, unfortunately, had to pay the going premium for 2021 housing absolutely KNOWING the value would probably drop a bit in the next two years when things calm down. We put enough down payment that if the market drops 30% we would still not be under water. I wish we could have put more down, but we left CO so fast I had to buy this house before our other house was ready to go.

OP is correct in that wages in FL (in the area I choose to live) are lower than other areas like CA, WA, CO, etc. It took me a few months of hard searching to find a job that I wanted, paid what I required, and was in the right area. Being lazy with some renovations and actually hiring someone for some work I was amazed at how shitty the pay can be out here. Journeymen electricians: $25!!!!! They were residential guys, but damn. I think my electrical buddies in CO pay their apprentices more than that.

The good news was that our house in Colorado skyrocketed from what we paid in 2013. No fucking way that place is worth anything near what the buyers paid. We scraped up to get the down payment at that time for a 210k house. Sold it for 599k.

Anyways, back to FL. The first two years were fine. Although they fucked us as hard as they could when the property tax assessment came through. Only a 100% increase over the first year we moved :flipoff:. Nothing I can do about it. They have overly assessed every house in my area (Jacksonville) that has been sold since we got here. Luckily prices have actually come up a but as we did pay a premium, but we bought the best house in the area as well. Now other houses that are unupdated/wrecked/small/no pool, etc are going for more than we paid for ours.

Insurance is INSANE. Until this year my premiums were $2200. Not great, not bad. Then when renewal time came this year, it was raised to $6600!!!!!! I spent the entire month of May getting quotes and changing. The ONLY thing available to a lot of homeowners here now is "Citizens" insurance. It's Florida's communist (govt run) insurance company. So many companies will simply not insure anything here at all. It's fucked. My house is 50 years old, made of brick, has a roof less than 10 years old, built elevated above flood elevation, brand new electrical, permitted and inspected renovations, the list goes on. I am nowhere near where any kind of hurricane is going to destroy my house (damage, slight chance).

So it has been good with some bad. I wouldn't think twice about doing it again. No fucking way I'd go back to CO.

There are also other things about FL real estate that are nice. I have some friends that also moved out to the area soon after me. They do not have the resources I have. They were able to purchase a home. 3 acres with a HUGE late model modular home and a couple of outbuildings for $150k-ish. They also moved from CO. They couldn't afford to live there any more as you can't even buy a 1-1 condo for less than $300k. Our niece and husband bought a townhome right before we left. 2-1-1200 sqft, +HOA fees every month for $499k. Insane. Point being, there are still places that are affordable, unlike blue-state stupidity.

Florida's market will not crash. Too many people constantly moving in (like myself). Also a healthy amount of people dying and creating vacancies due to everyone retiring here. It's got issues, but they aren't debilitating.
 
I've been in Civil Engineering since 1994 (almost 30 years). And we constantly monitor the market for new housing development with other local engineers. We started to all hunker down again like '08 when everybody was saying the "recession was coming" a couple of years gone now. Yet, we're all still experiencing record years. This year has been no different. Although the company I work for is finally accepting new jobs now, we still can't get subdivisions approved fast enough.

Everybody and their uncle has been saving up for a market crash for that "vacation house". Instead the prices seem to be still climbing if not at least remaining the same. I gave up and just bought a camper instead...
 
I hope it crashes. Hard. There's nothing in a crash for me but the venn diagram between "the people who would get fucked in a real-estate crash" and "the people who deserve to get fucked that bad and worse because they're shitty people" is too close to a perfect circle to not root for it.

Not even close. The Blackrocks of the world just sweep in and buy the distressed properties at a steep discount and turn them into rentals. That's the real long game here. They want to do here what they've done in Europe and basically turn us into a society of renters. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy. At least that's according to them.
 
I hope it crashes. Hard. There's nothing in a crash for me but the venn diagram between "the people who would get fucked in a real-estate crash" and "the people who deserve to get fucked that bad and worse because they're shitty people" is too close to a perfect circle to not root for it.
Why do you want the housing market to crash? That typically leads to high unemployment. Are you retired, or is your job safe for some special reason?
 
When I bought in 2018 I was told to wait, the market was going to crash at any second. Still hasn't, and my house has nearly doubled in "value"

FL is also fucked for a list of reasons. Wage is low if you compare to crazy COL states like CO and CA, I have friends down there and they claim its pretty good, compared to the northeast.
 
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