The 2023 Stock Market Thread

[Roc Doc]

I just checked my ROI I’m “only down” 10% now 😆 🤦‍♂️

I should just stop playing… I don’t know wtf I’m doing 😆. What I need to do is average down on some of my blue chips like BCE since I’m down 16%

It used to be "Make sure your portfolio is balanced between cash, bonds and stocks", Now it seems like everything goes up and down together. I'm pulling the management of my Schwab account back in anticipation of feeding it with a rollover IRA and my current 401k when I pack it in.

 

[XtremeJ]

Checking in on our resident bears today.

Hope you did not jump off any tall buildings today.

Been trading options on SPX lately. Difficult learning experience leading to a low 5 figure loss yesterday. Did not sleep, was contemplating a further larger loss today. Stubborn bastard I am, I did not sell out of all my positions, and the bounce overnight lead to a low 5 figure gain today. Barely flat after two days of hectic trading, lessons learned (poor risk management yesterday, and not stepping away after 3 consecutive losses) Traded really smart today, though too cautious as can be expected after a solid kick to the nuts yesterday.

Too damn timid today, on a day that called for aggression an hour after open. Left mid 5 figures on the table in profits but most important going into the weekend with a positive mindset, not two days of steep losses. Somehow my best trading days are always days after really bad losses.

Swing term positions
Been adding TSLA at the recent discount prices. As posted previously, one of my strategies to earn cash is selling TSLA covered calls, (and you need multiples of 100 shares to do so. Was a really nice source of income on the recent downswing, I don't really want to sell my positions, so am more timid when the stock is on a run.

DELL. looking for $80, stops in the green already

Long DraftKings after the recent PEG post earnings.

About to cut some CVNA long options at break even. Stock was weak today in a strong market - not a good sign

NVDA to $500 before earnings next week (I never hold swings over earnings, I use options for earning plays). Trailing some calls that are very green.
Needs market continuation.

Would guess we consolidate for a week or two, market usually slows into Thanksgiving. Too extended here for me to take heavy long positions. Nice to be risk free over the weekend - not quite all cash, but ..........

Happy trading all, manage your risk

 

[Provience]

This year could've been my year if I'd been better on top of things.

Just letting it ride hasn't worked out so good

 

[XtremeJ]

Well biggest bear of all has sold his shorts, Michael Burry of the Big Short movie fame had a $1.6 Billion bet on the market short. Been at least a couple quarters and disclosed he has sold / covered his short positions. Hopefully before todays gap up.

Stopped out of Dell yesterday at open, small green, but boy did it run after that.

DKNG killing it today

Managed to get out of CVNA with small red losses, after being down almost 100% in the options, was happy to close the position and be done today.

Huge winners overnight - SPX Calls, bought at $12 just before close, sold at $37.50 on the dip after open, single runner left still at $56.00
- QQQ calls, bought just before close, $2.20 and sold most 30 mins in this morning at $5.50 last runner now $6.15
-TSLA calls, bought at $4 sold at $6.5, $7.2 and last portion holding at $8.6 with a $1 trailing stop

Biggest green day of the year for me, made more money at open that I lost in the entire month of October, and that was a significant chunk.

All cash tonight - apart from the runners I will likely sell before close

Suspect we may consolidate for a day or two, but lots of levels broken, and lots of gaps above. Manage your risk.

 

[Norm]

I'm in bonds and CD's @ 5%, this feels a lot like the 2k market to me if you look at hte charts. We might test the all time highs before it's over. It all depends on what breaks in the financial system and when.

 

[XtremeJ]

I'm in bonds and CD's @ 5%, this feels a lot like the 2k market to me if you look at hte charts. We might test the all time highs before it's over. It all depends on what breaks in the financial system and when.

I have more "cash" tied up in treasuries that ever before, also around 5%. Some expire Dec, Jan and March, some mid summer.

I suspect there is a lot of cash in bonds and treasuries that folks cannot access right now, as those bonds mature I think we see folks with FOMO (fear of missing out) and piling back into the market. Today felt like shorts covering rather than new money coming in.

Unfortunately 5% only slows the rate we are losing money value, no way I believe the .gov numbers on inflation, just watch them correct them next month. Think they have revised downwards 9 times this year. Just another way we are being blatantly lied to.

Been interesting to watch all the FinTwits posting how they predicted this explosion upwards - hint, most of them were bears until Friday morning. Now they are the experts.

 

[gunracer1]

i covered all my losses of last month and put a bit of profits away. my big money was in ford.

 

[72Pstroke]

i covered all my losses of last month and put a bit of profits away. my big money was in ford.

Are you still holding your Ford stock?
I bought in during covid at just over $5 per share. It went to $25, analysts were saying it would go to $30.
I still own it now at <$10.

 

[Pony_Driver]

Are you still holding your Ford stock?
I bought in during covid at just over $5 per share. It went to $25, analysts were saying it would go to $30.
I still own it now at <$10.

I had a little at $5.80 or so, wish I had a bunch of it at that price.

 

[Provience]

iffin' i'd sold everything instead of drinking a bottle of scotch and then rebought everything when this thread claimed banking was at the bottom, i'd be ending the year on a real high note.

last month seems to be trying to save my ass for the year. This is what a chart looks like with massive over-exposure and exceedingly low diversity in holdings.....not a good strategy.

so hell, let's see what december does. why change now

 

[GarScramb]

iffin' i'd sold everything instead of drinking a bottle of scotch and then rebought everything when this thread claimed banking was at the bottom, i'd be ending the year on a real high note.

l

Been buying the last 2 days. Not gonna lie, the portfolios are underperforming this year. Being heavy in banks with TFC and GS has hurt me. Ironically my XLF (sector fund) is positive for the year. I predict we are at or near a bottom on the banks. So far earnings have still been decent. Banks are mostly selling way below the S&P PE levels. And I think the Fed is done for the year. Fact is that supply chain has done a lot to slow/stop inflation. I'd love to see these rates kill the real estate market for a while, but that's just a personal wish list so I can buy a vacation/retirement home.

Funny, I haven't really thought about it much but your post made me look. I posted the above on Oct 4. Since then GS is up 15%, XLF up 12% and my biggest laggard this year TFC up 23%. Some times a blind squirrel gets a nut....

 

[Norm]

I think will see a December rally, I think we could see another 1600 pts on the NASDQ before it's over. Historically rate hike cycles end with a new high or hitting the last high in 22, then a big fibonacci drop (ie 36%-50%). It's not going to be a nice soft landing, something will break biggley soon.

 

[[memphis]]

I think will see a December rally, I think we could see another 1600 pts on the NASDQ before it's over. Historically rate hike cycles end with a new high or hitting the last high in 22, then a big fibonacci drop (ie 36%-50%). It's not going to be a nice soft landing, something will break biggley soon.

I hope you are wrong… if there is a big reset I am definitely screwed. I’m currently down 8% I was down around 13-14% on my last post iirc

 

[Provience]

I think will see a December rally, I think we could see another 1600 pts on the NASDQ before it's over. Historically rate hike cycles end with a new high or hitting the last high in 22, then a big fibonacci drop (ie 36%-50%). It's not going to be a nice soft landing, something will break biggley soon.

banking recovered massively off their most recent lows, which were as or very near as bad as the deepest covid shut down the world lows, on the mere hint of feds not raising rates in first meeting of next year.

that's a lot of pent up expectation and money chomping at the bit to jump back in on any sort of stability and good news.

 

[Norm]

banking recovered massively off their most recent lows, which were as or very near as bad as the deepest covid shut down the world lows, on the mere hint of feds not raising rates in first meeting of next year.

that's a lot of pent up expectation and money chomping at the bit to jump back in on any sort of stability and good news.

You are not wrong, most of the banking run up was the feds promise to backstop all the banks. The problem is the gov can’t backstop all the banks. 50% of the banks in the US are technically insolvent with commercial property and 2% T-bills.


At some point some on we will see some banking pain. Tic Toc,

 

[Provience]

You are not wrong, most of the banking run up was the feds promise to backstop all the banks. The problem is the gov can’t backstop all the banks. 50% of the banks in the US are technically insolvent with commercial property and 2% T-bills.


At some point some on we will see some banking pain. Tic Toc,

maybe, they already backstopped the banks during the 2008/9 round of "bank collapse" prior to this past year. Every decade or so previous it seems like they do as well. Shit, they did something similar in 2020 shutdown era. about forgot about that already.

Maybe they will sacrifice one of the top rated banks A top 5 bank would be interesting, the rest of the top 15 will be fine, the top 25 or so will consolidate (with federal guarantees) all the smaller and small and regional banks that want to move on.

Shuffle and restock the debt deck and move on. I'm just not seeing a way for it to get too tragic PROVIDED i'm able to sell on the way down this time and buy back in nearing the drop. If I could at least stay on the sideline for a 15-20% drop I'd feel real successful

 

[Aggie06]

Are you still holding your Ford stock?
I bought in during covid at just over $5 per share. It went to $25, analysts were saying it would go to $30.
I still own it now at <$10.

I had some at $4-5 and sold. Should have held it. Buying back in at $10. Not a ton though. It’s on my screw around account.

 

[[486]]

that's a lot of pent up expectation and money chomping at the bit to jump back in on any sort of stability and good news.

the more money that is held, the more effective the inflation is at drawing down the value behind the dollar

 

[Provience]

the more money that is held, the more effective the inflation is at drawing down the value behind the dollar

stresses my wife out, but i'm doing everything I can to have near zero dollars held

it's an investment strategy, not just being poor and unable to budget is what I tell myself

 

[vetteboy79]

Holy shit, I'm actually positive on CCL again. $17.14 buy in, closed at $17.93 today. Anyone think that's worth continuing to hold, or just take a modest gain and find something else?

AMC is continuing to be a dud, I'm in there a bit over $8, shoulda sold a month or two ago but with all the huge movies that have been out lately I got greedy and thought it was gonna hang out higher for longer

 

[DannyK]

Holy shit, I'm actually positive on CCL again. $17.14 buy in, closed at $17.93 today. Anyone think that's worth continuing to hold, or just take a modest gain and find something else?

AMC is continuing to be a dud, I'm in there a bit over $8, shoulda sold a month or two ago but with all the huge movies that have been out lately I got greedy and thought it was gonna hang out higher for longer

I'm planning on holding all of my CCL for probably 5 years or more. I think it breaks $30 in around 2 yrs, then doubles again to around $60 in 5-8 yrs. I bought a whole lot of it at $16.76.

 

[[memphis]]

Dumb play I hope it works out… if they boot Trudy out of gov the cons are going to drill baby drill!

 

[gunracer1]

my NKL went to shit yesterday, my HBI went positive yesterday, i pulled out and put it on her back. i was in heavy for me. i am scare to think long term.

 

[gunracer1]

i got into rumble, got greedy and held out and lost 6k, got it back today but it looks like i pulled out a bit early. everything took off this afternoon.

 

[gunracer1]

i see the fed lowered its inflation numbers.

 

[Norm]

i see the fed lowered its inflation numbers.

Yup, health care cost went down 33%

Looking at freight shipments and lumber shit is slowing a bunch across the country.

 

[Provience]

i see the fed lowered its inflation numbers.

You inspired me to go look. Certainly going to see some pullback tomorrow, I'm conflicted to sell off half of everything vs waiting until mid January. I'm optimistic until late winter/early spring. Then I think there will be missed goals etc

 

[vetteboy79]

I bailed on my CCL yesterday, set a stop loss at $17.50 and it triggered. Of course today it's back north of $18 again but whatever, at least I'm out of it with a modest gain and I'll find something more interesting to do.

IBM has been quite strong for me lately though, I have quite a bit of that so it's a welcome boost in value for this quarter

 

[Provience]

I bailed on my CCL yesterday, set a stop loss at $17.50 and it triggered. Of course today it's back north of $18 again but whatever, at least I'm out of it with a modest gain and I'll find something more interesting to do.

IBM has been quite strong for me lately though, I have quite a bit of that so it's a welcome boost in value for this quarter

Stop loss....that's the term I need to learn

 

[Norm]

Stop loss....that's the term I need to learn

They generally are set to trigger during trading hours, so if massive moves happen after hours you can get really screwed. Ask me how I know