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The 2023 Stock Market Thread

I'm wondering if all the AI tech infiltrating our society will cause the NASDAQ to outperform over the next several years like it did during the internet boom.
 
Rising interest rates, bank failures, when does this market pop?
 
_03_ said:
Rising interest rates, bank failures, when does this market pop?
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Dunno, but I keep loading up on dividend stocks like VZ every time I see a drop. I'm at a small loss right now, and will probably have a larger loss for a couple of years, but I figure if I keep loading it cheap, it'll work out just fine.
 
Not too often shit falls in my lap

Been holding OMH for about 6 weeks, Singapore based real estate play. Bought at $5-ish.

Went parabolic today, mostly in the last hour. Sold some at $35 plus. No news I can find except .................

There was a lot of crypto chatter today, and one of the coins is One Million Holders - OMH

What are the chances the crypto boys are buying this ticker thinking they are buying crypto, and it sure ain't.

I actually doubled one account today. Taken 1/2 off just in case this is a total mistake and it goes back to $5 tomorrow

If not, I still hold a portion and will trail that. Crazy times.
 
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Higher highs. Higher lows
Still room to the upside if the channel holds

Most important. We seem to have broken out of a six week chop zone. Heck almost a Darvis box
Now needs to retest the breakout and hold before the next leg.

I am a little suspect that this is a false breakout, but am enjoying the bears being squeezed.

Looking less likely now we revisit those lows.

still some very concerning signals though. Especially commercial real estate and smaller banks if we see another raise in prime rate
 
XtremeJ said:
Not too often shit falls in my lap

Been holding OMH for about 6 weeks, Singapore based real estate play. Bought at $5-ish.

Went parabolic today, mostly in the last hour. Sold some at $35 plus. No news I can find except .................

There was a lot of crypto chatter today, and one of the coins is One Million Holders - OMH

What are the chances the crypto boys are buying this ticker thinking they are buying crypto, and it sure ain't.

I actually doubled one account today. Taken 1/2 off just in case this is a total mistake and it goes back to $5 tomorrow

If not, I still hold a portion and will trail that. Crazy times.
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Nice! Gotta take those when the opportunity arises. My personal best was a 2600% gain, but that was measured in 2(ish) years, not 6 weeks. Those are the ones where you wished you put a few more zeroes on the initial buy, and then walk away with FU money.

Im still on the lookout for startup Lithium mining/refining plays. Hesitated on PMETF (Canadian concern) last year. Since Jan22, it has increased 1000%. Woops. I’m eyeing ABML right now. (unconventional) mining, refining, and also battery metals recycling right in Nevada. On OTC, but apparently they filed with the SEC to be included on NASDAQ. Disclosure: I’m in neither at the moment.

USD is finally moving a bit - about damn time. Been a pretty agonizing 6-7 weeks.
 
XtremeJ said:
Good Morning Bears, feeling the squeeze yet? :flipoff2:
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Copper and iron disagree with you:laughing:

I called about scrap steel pricing a week or so back and it had been cut, the owner said it was cut in the middle of the month, which is odd, usually that means the big boys expect another deeper cut and don't want to be holding the bag.

I work in heavy equipment repair, it's hit a wall in the last 2 weeks. If I'm not getting called to fix it, it's because it's not running. I also haven't had a 500hr pm lately, so the machines aren't being run as hard.

Last year conduction crews were working Sundays, now they're not working Saturdays, and looks like they're wrapped up at 2pm weekdays, ie 40hr weeks no ot.

When I list shit for market value I get less calls, even though this is the selling season.

I think we're at the turn, and next move is higher unemployment.

Now ultimately the dollar will be printed to nothing, but we might get a couple years of stronger dollar lower prices
 
Cathy Woods is fucking with my trades again. Way back when I was selling PLTR puts and caught it on the downswing and wiped a year of growth out. Since then I have been selling OOM calls against them. Sold some last week, and yesterday it hits the news that she is scooping up PLTR again so of course it blew way through the call. It will at least realize the losses from 2022 so I will be paying less in taxes this year and can go back to selling puts once it calms back down.

ETA: And she added more so it will be another up day. At least i am still holding a little over half the position with no calls against it.
 
Rallye said:
Im still on the lookout for startup Lithium mining/refining plays. Hesitated on PMETF (Canadian concern) last year. Since Jan22, it has increased 1000%. Woops. I’m eyeing ABML right now. (unconventional) mining, refining, and also battery metals recycling right in Nevada. On OTC, but apparently they filed with the SEC to be included on NASDAQ. Disclosure: I’m in neither at the moment.
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Are you looking for the companies that are developing Salton Sea deposits?

 
Projectjunkie said:
Copper and iron disagree with you:laughing:

I called about scrap steel pricing a week or so back and it had been cut, the owner said it was cut in the middle of the month, which is odd, usually that means the big boys expect another deeper cut and don't want to be holding the bag.

I work in heavy equipment repair, it's hit a wall in the last 2 weeks. If I'm not getting called to fix it, it's because it's not running. I also haven't had a 500hr pm lately, so the machines aren't being run as hard.

Last year conduction crews were working Sundays, now they're not working Saturdays, and looks like they're wrapped up at 2pm weekdays, ie 40hr weeks no ot.

When I list shit for market value I get less calls, even though this is the selling season.

I think we're at the turn, and next move is higher unemployment.

Now ultimately the dollar will be printed to nothing, but we might get a couple years of stronger dollar lower prices
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I watch lumber prices to get a handle on consumer demand, we are back to 2012 levels. Copper is another good measure, copper to gold ratio is a interesting measure. My take is we are not heading into a strong period of growth, and any run up in stocks will be short lived. Short fast run ups in stocks are not out of the scope of a normal bear market. The real ugly is just get started and it will be in the credit markets first.
 
Projectjunkie said:
Copper and iron disagree with you:laughing:
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Market is a leading indicator, metals not so much.

Take a look at every major market correction, the stock market had turned long before the rate increases slowed or stopped, long before peak unemployment, and long before real estate even showed signs of bottoming.

Market does need a period of consolidation, and I would not be surprised if it lasted 18-24 months. But revisiting last years lows? I highly doubt that, even J-Pow was dovish today. And as soon as Wall Street gets a sniff of rates being eased, market will head higher.

However (said in best fence sitter mode) - debt ceiling is the wild card. If the Beijing puppet really tries to invoke the 14th, and IF the Repulicants stick to their guns, we could see short term chaos. Might even see a 10% retraction - but even that is a long way from the recent lows.
 
XtremeJ said:
Market is a leading indicator, metals not so much.
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I mean, they call it "Doctor Copper" because it's supposed to tell the truth about how much production and consumption is actually going on in the world versus paper pushers fudging quarterly reports.

Also the guy that got his overtime cut might not know how to invest on the upswing, but he can tell you about the 3 local projects that got cut on Tuesday, he'll know that long before the quarterly reports come out.



Price to earnings, stocks are a bubble, median home price to median earnings, real estate is a bubble. But maybe the biggest bubble of them all is the faith in the USD, making stocks and real estate a no brainer :homer:


We'll see who prints what I guess.


I wouldn't be surprised to see stagflation
 
Projectjunkie said:
I mean, they call it "Doctor Copper" because it's supposed to tell the truth about how much production and consumption is actually going on in the world versus paper pushers fudging quarterly reports.

Also the guy that got his overtime cut might not know how to invest on the upswing, but he can tell you about the 3 local projects that got cut on Tuesday, he'll know that long before the quarterly reports come out.



Price to earnings, stocks are a bubble, median home price to median earnings, real estate is a bubble. But maybe the biggest bubble of them all is the faith in the USD, making stocks and real estate a no brainer :homer:


We'll see who prints what I guess.


I wouldn't be surprised to see stagflation
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The problem is for a fee a lot of that micro data became available to analysts. After that operating a commodities based business became more and more about responsible capital allocation. Wall st doesn't care what the price of copper is, they care that you hit your numbers, which means you aren't running mines like you did 10 years ago. Shoot even the local privately owned copper is operating on a we are going to hit this many tons this year and everything over the expected margin is mostly being returned to the owners or is capital project funding (most of which isn't growth). When I worked there 13+ years ago it was all about production, if you didn't run 52000 TPD why you didn't was all you heard the next pre shift.
 
Projectjunkie said:
Copper and iron disagree with you:laughing:

I called about scrap steel pricing a week or so back and it had been cut, the owner said it was cut in the middle of the month, which is odd, usually that means the big boys expect another deeper cut and don't want to be holding the bag.

I work in heavy equipment repair, it's hit a wall in the last 2 weeks. If I'm not getting called to fix it, it's because it's not running. I also haven't had a 500hr pm lately, so the machines aren't being run as hard.

Last year conduction crews were working Sundays, now they're not working Saturdays, and looks like they're wrapped up at 2pm weekdays, ie 40hr weeks no ot.

When I list shit for market value I get less calls, even though this is the selling season.

I think we're at the turn, and next move is higher unemployment.

Now ultimately the dollar will be printed to nothing, but we might get a couple years of stronger dollar lower prices
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Our North Texas small field service has come to a screeching halt...
Our San Antonio region is 4-6 weeks out.
 
CarterKraft said:
Our North Texas small field service has come to a screeching halt...
Our San Antonio region is 4-6 weeks out.
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I don't know north Texas, San Antonio or what you're calling "small field service"

If I had to guess this is mostly construction equipment that's been on residential building sites?
So north Texas building hits a wall, San Antonio still building, for now?



*oddly enough, Tucson boomed hard last time around, then busted hard in 09, this time around, I wouldn't be surprised if the country pukes, but a handful of locations are going to look good to Californians/ new englanders fleeing with the last 300k in equity, and will set a floor for that type of house

Maybe San Antonio is similar
 
CarterKraft said:
Our North Texas small field service has come to a screeching halt...
Our San Antonio region is 4-6 weeks out.
Click to expand...

Buddy of mine is commercial equipment leasing in SA. According to him, they cant keep anything on the lot, it's all on lease.

Residential definitely hit the brakes. Some areas still smoldering though. Lots of west coast and yankee invaders still.

Multi family, ie apartments, still humping. Those wheels were set in motion years ago. Doubt anything new in the pipeline.

Cars are still selling hot on the lot despite rates.
 
Work on forklifts and our repair calls are slowing down. The wiring plant I stay at is slow and they're talking laying off some. At the same they are still hiring. They also just started another big addition to the plant.

They blame their rod plant, then say no new orders. One of the workers, said the price of copper from Russia is too high or can not get it, Who knows!
 
Projectjunkie said:
I don't know north Texas, San Antonio or what you're calling "small field service"

If I had to guess this is mostly construction equipment that's been on residential building sites?
So north Texas building hits a wall, San Antonio still building, for now?



*oddly enough, Tucson boomed hard last time around, then busted hard in 09, this time around, I wouldn't be surprised if the country pukes, but a handful of locations are going to look good to Californians/ new englanders fleeing with the last 300k in equity, and will set a floor for that type of house

Maybe San Antonio is similar
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Yeah we have two field service groups, big and small, the small is the usual rental type machines and large is on up to mining equipment, both groups is 60+ trucks In DFW.

Not sure how many trucks in SA.

Residential home site visits seem to have stopped according to the other techs.
 
CarterKraft said:
Yeah we have two field service groups, big and small, the small is the usual rental type machines and large is on up to mining equipment, both groups is 60+ trucks In DFW.

Not sure how many trucks in SA.

Residential home site visits seem to have stopped according to the other techs.
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Related nugget, the last jobsite I worked on in construction, before starting in mining, was a 2000 homesite spread, Aug 07, they built the club house and 3 models. They didn't get any further, the main roads were done, there were high dollar irrigation boxes at the intersections, in 2011 or so they actually bulldozed the 3 models and the clubhouse


After a few more years, somebody came in and bought every single homesite for 1k as a package deal.

Now they're all 450k and up houses with bad water:laughing:
 
Just checking on the resident bears, hope you are doing OK. :flipoff2::flipoff2::lmao:

And in interest of full disclosure, the very last of my accounts that took a hit last Spring is back green again. An almost 15 month slog to recover from those option losses, or an expensive lesson in risk management - and i have definitely applied that this year. See kids, trading is not as easy as those fools on FinTwit like to make out. Sure they all post their wins, but do they post their losses (like actual realized 6 figure losses?)

I did see mention of one of the analysts actually downgrading copper this past week, are they snooping here at Irate? :shaking::shaking:

Best trade of the past two weeks was CBNT, not even a penny stock when I bought. Became an actual penny stock today, took 1/2 off at almost 35% profit. Still holding a few hundred thousand shares. The AMC apes have nothing on me - to the moon. :smokin:

Of course Beijing Joe could fuck up a wet dream, so the debt ceiling BS could put a real damper on the market next week. But it has been "buy the dip" for a solid 7 weeks now.

If you FinTwit follow Adam Mancini for a real level perspective of the market. I subscribe to his daily email, usually a post market analysis with a plan based on technical levels for the next day. He pretty much only trades SPX.

Have to be in Detroit next week for my real job, so not expecting to trade much.
 
Enjoying the pop Nvidia had this week. I was listening to some discussion about western governments bringing chip production domestic and the amount of money being invested and it has me wondering if the chip sector is going to crash again in the next 3-5 years.
 
I'm seeing all the early recession indicators, copper slumping, steel slumping, building slowing *

Looked up hotels this weekend at a fancy place with a water park, memorial day weekend, good availability and pricing.

Did some work on a machine at a auto salvage auction today. Noticed the aluminum f150 with engine fire parked under the awning. Mentioned it to the lot guy, he said it's under investigation "oh, like fraud? "
Yup

"How about the cummins mega cab with the engine fire over there"

That one just cleared investigation

I'd been here 20 times, hadn't had trucks on investigation hold on my work area previously, but then again, trucks haven't been underwater until now


Lot guy called it like it is, guy can't make their payments, trucks catch fire


*commercial and public roads are cranking, but I've seen that before. You build 20k homes in bfe, that now have reasonable occupancy, and property taxes collected, regardless of national/ global economics, you're gonna get gas stations, grocery store, dollar store, a strip mall, and new roads to get there, that's separate funding
 
This is a very narrow classic bear rally, I'm neutral for now. I expect fed rates and the market to top by the beginning of Q3. The real blood bath will come later this year. You can't jump rates that fast and pull that much liquidity from the markets without creating pain in credit facility's. I think we will see a choppy mostly sideways market until fall.
 
I don't think the consumer is slowing down much at all yet. Still crowds traveling, traffic everywhere. I'm buying some more XOM on this dip. There is no way next quarterly results are not going to be great. Yes, oil is down so probably not going to see record earnings again. But price is still high enough that they are making a killing.

Also added to my CP position a little today and MO.

If I were betting on what the Fed does, I think we see another .25 next meeting. That should probably be enough to kick off Recession Season.
 
Bought some VIX today. Seems like I always get nervous when the market is doing bad and I miss the bottom entry point so that gives me something to play with when the market gets volatile.
 
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