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Are we finally entering the recession?

MONSTERMUDDER said:
Based off the other thread this is soley because the millenials / zoomers refused to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and spend too much of their income on avacado toast :flipoff2:
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Root cause identified!! Boomer: "Does a burnout in a Corvette towing a pontoon boat to the lake house"


I mean you can see where their priorities are. The populace has been complaining about inflation, then get gas lit by everyone in charge, even supplied proof that your 4th of July feats consisting of ground beef, a can of beans, an ear of corn and a lemonade is $.04 cheaper this year, and pointing out inflation is white supremacy. Stock market hiccups: CUT THE RATES NOOOOOOWWWWWW!!!!!!!
 
Texas97 said:
the great quitting back 3-4 years ago really destroyed the job market. people were paid to sit at home. if you wanted someone to show up you had to pay the hell out of them and steal them from somewhere else. right now, wages are ridiculously high. there's a correction coming soon. ive seen the job market slow down over the last 6 months.

The government has too, they just lie about it. either flat out, or they go back and "revise" the numbers back down. also there were many months were the only sector adding jobs was the government. which adds to inflation, etc.
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Try running a company where the employees HAVE to show up to do the work through that bullshit.
 
Motorcharge said:
Not really, that's only really true for jobs that were paying like $40k and under. It fucked up the service industry, retail, etc but that's about it. Inflation is a large part of the wages. People were already under paid with wages stagnating for decades vs inflation. The rapid rise in inflation gave employers no real choice but to start paying more. Demand drove that a lot more than the government or COVID, at least in real, adult jobs.


Everything about Keynesian economics is terrible. :laughing:

Obama's spending was only half the picture. The other half was keeping artificial interest rates so low for so long after coming out of 08/09, then the same thing under Trump. We're now feeling the effects of that.
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Modern democrats and republicans only use half of the Keynesian recipe. Yes, they use printing presses to "stimulate" the economy during downturns, but Keynes wrote that during prosperous times, interest rates had to be increased to avoid excessive exuberance. In the latter, they did exactly the opposite. Democrats and republicans.
 
DWT said:
Stop paying people to sit at home. Generational welfare is not the way to grow an economy. :homer:
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thats never been their goal. dont have to grow an economy if you can create a fully dependent class that always votes D.

JD Mark said:
Try running a company where the employees HAVE to show up to do the work through that bullshit.
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I have and I am.
 
Texas97 said:
no, it happened in lots of other industries, engineering, trades, etc. it wasnt just the under $40k market. Theres already been layoffs in the surveying sector as development has slowed a lot. and i dont think its just interest rates. i think everyone is getting tight with their money. demand for housing is slowing way down as people realize they cant afford to upsize for a few more years.
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I was only referring to the employment and compensation issue.

The rest of that I would attribute to general lack of confidence in the economy pending the election, whether it's conscious or not. Nothing has really changed this year vs last year in the economy other than the fact that it's an election year. It's no more expensive today to build than it was a year ago but there's been a lot of wait and see going on versus risk being taken which is always the case in an election year to a degree.

DWT said:
Stop paying people to sit at home. Generational welfare is not the way to grow an economy. :homer:
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Devils advocate: How much does it completely fuck the working poor if suddenly you cut off general welfare programs and force all these people to enter the job market? It's not like these people are going to be competing for anything but the lowest of jobs.

Not advocating for keeping people on welfare but I bet it's a hell of a can of worms to open if you just kick them all off at once.

Mikel said:
Modern democrats and republicans only use half of the Keynesian recipe. Yes, they use printing presses to "stimulate" the economy during downturns, but Keynes wrote that during prosperous times, interest rates had to be increased to avoid excessive exuberance. In the latter, they did exactly the opposite. Democrats and republicans.
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I know, that's why I mentioned both Obama and Trump being causes of this for keeping interest rates so low.
 
Texas97 said:
thats never been their goal. dont have to grow an economy if you can create a fully dependent class that always votes D.
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Not exactly. The end goal is a dependent class that is no longer allowed to vote.
 
Motorcharge said:
Not really, that's only really true for jobs that were paying like $40k and under. It fucked up the service industry, retail, etc but that's about it. Inflation is a large part of the wages. People were already under paid with wages stagnating for decades vs inflation. The rapid rise in inflation gave employers no real choice but to start paying more. Demand drove that a lot more than the government or COVID, at least in real, adult jobs.
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And that rise in wages has created more inflation because of everyone sitting on their asses at home doing nothing.

Wages in my industry were not low. Now they are stupid high and I still have a hard time getting someone with a valid DL, relatively clean record and can pass a whizz test.

So I have to raise prices to cover wage increases. And every other stupid thing that has increased in price. Which just snowballs.

It's not like just getting wages to catch up to inflation solved anything.
 
JD Mark said:
And that rise in wages has created more inflation because of everyone sitting on their asses at home doing nothing.

Wages in my industry were not low. Now they are stupid high and I still have a hard time getting someone with a valid DL, relatively clean record and can pass a whizz test.

So I have to raise prices to cover wage increases. And every other stupid thing that has increased in price. Which just snowballs.

It's not like just getting wages to catch up to inflation solved anything.
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Not really. The stimulus and unemployment coverage accounted for $650 billion of the $5 trillion dollars they printed for the covid bills. It certainly didn't help, but it wasn't the driving factor behind all this either. It's easy to sit back and point the finger at the people who sat on their ass, but they didn't cause $5 trillion to be added to the money pool.
 
Motorcharge said:
Devils advocate: How much does it completely fuck the working poor if suddenly you cut off general welfare programs and force all these people to enter the job market? It's not like these people are going to be competing for anything but the lowest of jobs.

Not advocating for keeping people on welfare but I bet it's a hell of a can of worms to open if you just kick them all off at once.
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I 100% know it's be a huge shit show but maaaaaan would I love to see it happen. Enact a country wide make my day law and let the chips fall where they may. :smokin:
 
DWT said:
I 100% know it's be a huge shit show but maaaaaan would I love to see it happen. Enact a country wide make my day law and let the chips fall where they may. :smokin:
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Kind of like just legalizing drugs, pulling the band aid off will suck but it will work out for the better in the long run. But at the same time I don't think the American populace has the stomach to let either situation happen even though it needs to.
 
Motorcharge said:
Kind of like just legalizing drugs, pulling the band aid off will suck but it will work out for the better in the long run. But at the same time I don't think the American populace has the stomach to let either situation happen even though it needs to.
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They just don't. There would be 500 loser advocacy groups pop up before the ink dried on the legislation chock full of white women trying to save the world. :laughing:
 
Norm said:
Don't forget we are now 35 trillion in debt, 1/3 of our tax receipts go to just to pay the interest. In order to keep spending two things need to happen

1. interest rates need to be kept artificially low.
2. Inflation needs to be above the rate of debt increases.

That's not good for the average joe. But it's going to happen.
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Hence the fed. As long as the rates can be manipulated below true inflation, the actual debt doesn't matter, as we are paying back less than we borrowed to begin with.
Motorcharge said:
The national debt is largely meaningless outside of inflation, the vast majority of that money is owed to us by ourselves
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This is the Social Security debacle that is being sold to the people under false pretense. All FICA collected above and beyond receipts is required to be used to purchase US bonds. This is how the debt never decreased during the "Clonton Surplus" years, the extra money came from the bond purchases by the SSA.

That also means the date at which time they are claiming SSA with be broke just means that is when they project revenue to fall below spending and the SSA will begin to cash the bonds.
 
DWT said:
They just don't. There would be 500 loser advocacy groups pop up before the ink dried on the legislation chock full of white women trying to save the world. :laughing:
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Yeah, just look at Oregon and their attempt. It lasted what, a year?
 
Motorcharge said:
Yeah, just look at Oregon and their attempt. It lasted what, a year?
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I don't think they quit because of advocacy groups.

I think they repealed it because having a bunch of addicts stumbling around committing more crime was destroying the state.

That and Narcan keeping these idiots alive to do it all over again.
 
JD Mark said:
I don't think they quit because of advocacy groups.

I think they repealed it because having a bunch of addicts stumbling around committing more crime was destroying the state.

That and Narcan keeping these idiots alive to do it all over again.
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I was more generally referring to the lack of stomach to let it play out than I was to advocacy specifically.
 
DRTDEVL said:
Hence the fed. As long as the rates can be manipulated below true inflation, the actual debt doesn't matter, as we are paying back less than we borrowed to begin with.

This is the Social Security debacle that is being sold to the people under false pretense. All FICA collected above and beyond receipts is required to be used to purchase US bonds. This is how the debt never decreased during the "Clonton Surplus" years, the extra money came from the bond purchases by the SSA.

That also means the date at which time they are claiming SSA with be broke just means that is when they project revenue to fall below spending and the SSA will begin to cash the bonds.
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Fun fact, the government spent that money and another 35 trillion :homer: . If the US government were a corporation it would be insolvent.
 
Texas97 said:
the great quitting back 3-4 years ago really destroyed the job market. people were paid to sit at home. if you wanted someone to show up you had to pay the hell out of them and steal them from somewhere else. right now, wages are ridiculously high. there's a correction coming soon. ive seen the job market slow down over the last 6 months.
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The better jobs/careers don't ride this boom-bust BS. By better, I mean jobs with security, bennies, and wages that can only increase (albeit slowly). Any "great quitting" employees in my field were on the eve of retirement anyway.

I've seen nothing change in the job market here the last couple years. I swear the media is trying to pitch a grim picture to shake things up i.e. start the roller coaster. Big players thrive on the chaos. Common-folk 'making do' doesn't make anyone else rich.
 
Mikel said:
Modern democrats and republicans only use half of the Keynesian recipe. Yes, they use printing presses to "stimulate" the economy during downturns, but Keynes wrote that during prosperous times, interest rates had to be increased to avoid excessive exuberance.
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that's kinda funny
backwards day twice over

incentivize low time preference when market forces states high time preference is prudent, and vice versa, too...
 
They redefine the metrics for everything and you're asking this question? It's like them claiming crime is down, but you didn't realize that it's no longer a requirement to report your crime statistics to the FBI any longer under this administration. Pay attention people, the information is out there, but you have to find it as they try to hide it.
 
MONSTERMUDDER said:
Based off the other thread this is soley because the millenials / zoomers refused to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and spend too much of their income on avacado toast :flipoff2:
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Not nearly enough form handshakes given to hiring managers either
Norm said:
Either Trump or the dunce we are in big trouble, neither have any sort of reasonable plan to fix our economy. The only forward is inflation or bankruptcy, so inflation it is. Inflation is just devaluation of our currency. We are up shit creek without a paddle, things are going to be shit for at least a decade. This doesn't end well for the US.
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Regardless of who is president or when, those are always the only two levers available to the fed
 
I been living like a pauper since Covid. If I did not get a promotion my salary would have sucked. The people that worked thru this mess and stayed at there jobs are not realizing the increase in salaries. HR knows about it but the high ups are trying to pay off debt from when interest rates were low.
 
cj3a said:
I been living like a pauper since Covid. If I did not get a promotion my salary would have sucked. The people that worked thru this mess and stayed at there jobs are not realizing the increase in salaries. HR knows about it but the high ups are trying to pay off debt from when interest rates were low.
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Indeed.

I earned 2 promotions since COVID, and my compensation has increased by 128% since the start of 2021... but it only feels like half that increase after inflation and increased taxes.
 
DWT said:
The liberal disbursement of narcan points directly at their lack of stomach.
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You should get one narcan pass free, maybe two depending on circumstances. It's easy to get oops all fentanyl out of even harmless shit these days. Second one (maybe third depending) gets you a big fucking tattoo on your forehead. They find you out with the tattoo, no more narcan for you.
 
Motorcharge said:
You should get one narcan pass free, maybe two depending on circumstances. It's easy to get oops all fentanyl out of even harmless shit these days. Second one (maybe third depending) gets you a big fucking tattoo on your forehead. They find you out with the tattoo, no more narcan for you.
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I'm in for that. :smokin:
 
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