SpaceX Starship

Hell, I'm still working through the implications of this. It really sucks all around.

Good article from Eric Berger:
The most spectacular rocket explosion since N1 just happened in Florida

Where it really hurts beyond Blue Origins own pain, and the implication for Amazon's LEO internet constellation (that just lost a full load of satellites (edit - this was incorrect), and one of their main launch providers is on hold for a while) - NASA was leaning on Blue Origin heavily for some of the most significant near-future lunar missions, as in that new lunar announcement from just the other day. They were planning on flying their mk-1 lander to the moon before the end of the year. Can say that's probably off the table at this point.



 
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How the hell could they honestly expect to get near the moon this year after that setback? I'm gonna go out on a limb and since I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in '09 I am considered an expert and say that just set them back 6 months minimum and closer to a year on a lot of what they are trying to accomplish in the next 36 months.
 
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Java230 said:
SpaceX doesn't have the lift capacity for the lunar rovers etc.
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The Falcon Heavy is SpaceX’s most powerful currently operational rocket, capable of lifting 63,800 kg (140,660 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), 26,700 kg (58,860 lb) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and 16,800 kg (37,040 lb) to Mars Wikipedia+2.

I think they do.
 
Scooter said:
How the hell could they honestly expect to get near the moon this year after that setback? I'm gonna go out on a limb and since I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in '09 I am considered an expert and say that just set them back 6 months minimum and closer to a year on a lot of what they are trying to accomplish in the next 36 months.
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Yeah at this point there's just no way. With the pad damage I'm concerned we won't even see them fly at all again until next year, let alone the ambitious lunar goals. And they were also expected to be a part of the Artemis 3 meetup in low earth orbit next year with their next test test lander as well. This really puts a damper on everything

Void_of_Light said:
Why would NASA pick them to deliver anything yet? SpaceX is so far ahead of every other company that they are all competing for third place.
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Void_of_Light said:
The Falcon Heavy is SpaceX’s most powerful currently operational rocket, capable of lifting 63,800 kg (140,660 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), 26,700 kg (58,860 lb) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and 16,800 kg (37,040 lb) to Mars Wikipedia+2.

I think they do.
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SpaceX 5 meter diameter fairing versus New Glenns 7 meter diameter is a big part of it. That above lander was designed and built by Blue Origin for their New Glenn rocket. In fact there's a good chance that it was going to fly to the moon anyways even before NASA selected it for missions, it just happened to have enough parallels to be contracted for useful missions as well. But getting a mega fairing onto a Falcon would be a huge task
 
Scooter said:
The back to back setbacks would probably have been enough to permanently scuttle anyone but Bezos or Musk IMO.
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These companies have insurance so they can handle big events like this, at least for the rockets and payloads, but I'm not sure how far that extends into the pad infrastructure as well.

Here are the first shots of the pad damage this morning, it's looking pretty nasty as one could imagine. One of the lightning towers fell, the transporter erector looks pretty destroyed, and the launch tower itself has massive damage and buckling near the base. I really hope they'll be able to pull off some miracles and get this site back up and running ASAP



 
I'm going to buck the trend (I usually do :evil: ) and say they will be back up and running much quicker than anyone expects.

It has been my experience that all the 'professional' commenters never seem to take into account the human drive to keep going, AND the rapidly accelerating rate of technological change. They are too stuck in the here and now of the catastrophe and their predictions are skewed by that.

Especially when dealing with ultra well financed, and egotistical (respectfully) people like Musk and Bezos. These guys just get **** done.

Bezos is already sketching out the new launchpad in his head, arranging concrete and steel delivery and all the great improvements he will make. Musk is analysing the data to try and make sure it doesn't happen to him.
 
Fuzzydog said:
I'm going to buck the trend (I usually do :evil: ) and say they will be back up and running much quicker than anyone expects.

It has been my experience that all the 'professional' commenters never seem to take into account the human drive to keep going, AND the rapidly accelerating rate of technological change. They are too stuck in the here and now of the catastrophe and their predictions are skewed by that.

Especially when dealing with ultra well financed, and egotistical (respectfully) people like Musk and Bezos. These guys just get **** done.

Bezos is already sketching out the new launchpad in his head, arranging concrete and steel delivery and all the great improvements he will make. Musk is analysing the data to try and make sure it doesn't happen to him.
Click to expand...

I genuinely want that to be the case, I want them to be back up and running ASAP and believe they'll be ready to throw as much cash at it as possible to expedite the timeline.

But initial reports so far in this case are that they might have to wipe the pad clean and start over from a blank slate including the launch tower, transporter erector, lightning towers, some of the propellant storage tanks, and maybe even the water tower. Parts like tanks that are preexisting and can probably just be purchased won't hurt the timelines too much, but I'm not sure if they have a second launch tower in build/storage anywhere for one of their next launch pads, and those have historically taken quite a while to build.

I think being on the critical path with NASA means they'll probably have the regulatory process streamlined, but I'm concerned. I appreciate the optimism though and I want to be proven wrong! :beer:
 
Big-bada-boom!

From what I've read, BO is in the process of building a second launch tower. I suspect that is going to move into high gear for completion. Can't see them launching again before next year, BO is not as frantic as Space-X.
 
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Fuzzydog said:
I'm going to buck the trend (I usually do :evil: ) and say they will be back up and running much quicker than anyone expects.
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Agree. Thing most folks miss is that most of the important stuff is relatively hard to destroy - foundations, piping, wiring, etc. The destroyed towers are just big hunks of structural steel. It's relatively easy to cut that away and build a new tower. If deeper infrastructure is damaged that's harder, but you really can't tell from pictures. Also there's a lot of ways you can bodge stuff together to make it work well enough. Note that the piping, structures, etc. all look pretty intact. Biggest impact to me is probably the transport/erector tower and platform.

Remember that these sites are designed to withstand expose to the rocket during launch, and are generally designed with awareness that it might explode. Further, while a rocket failure like this looks and sounds impressive, in terms of an explosion it's actually not very efficient. You have lots of energy, but it's released over a significant period of time, and much of the fuel dissipates vs burning. Also, because it's over such a large length of rocket it's not as concentrated as a bomb would be. Finally, there's little real shrapnel or anything to couple the energy effectively.
 
I genuinely hope you guys are right. Just gut feeling, I’d be super impressed if they’re flying again in less than like 8 months ish based on seeing other pads being developed from various companies. And I’ll be very happy to be wrong

That ULA launch bigun mentioned earlier is 15 minutes away, here’s the official feed:

 
Austin said:
Largest Rocket Explosion Ever :nuke:

Steel tower and water tower still standing.

Just Saying Devils Advocate GIF
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The water tower seems like it might be structurally intact besides being a little crispy so that’s looking good.

But the tower took a massive hit. It seems like the side blew off the transporter erector and hit the tower, completely severing 1 of the 4 legs and buckling some other beams.

I don’t know if that kind of thing can be repaired in place or if it has to be demo’d

This specific reply zooms in on the tower, but this whole analysis thread with zoomed views is pretty solid

 
AgitatedPancake said:
The water tower seems like it might be structurally intact besides being a little crispy so that’s looking good.

But the tower took a massive hit. It seems like the side blew off the transporter erector and hit the tower, completely severing 1 of the 4 legs and buckling some other beams.

I don’t know if that kind of thing can be repaired in place or if it has to be demo’d

This specific reply zooms in on the tower, but this whole analysis thread with zoomed views is pretty solid

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Demo and rebuild assuming the concrete is ok. Steel structure is ****ed.

Water tower might be ok
 
I’d be worried about all that concrete seeing that much heat and pressure on one side then how many every hundreds of tons falling on it.

I would think it’s going to be 4-6 months before they are launching from there again.

Perfect timing for the space x ipo
 
Java230 said:
Demo and rebuild assuming the concrete is ok. Steel structure is ****ed.

Water tower might be ok
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I suspect it could be repaired. Depends on details.

Best I can tell, this tower and the other collapsed one are solely for lighting protection, which means they don't really need to be very heavily built. That's probably why the one fell over - it was a fairly light structure. Note there seems to be no damage to the tubes it landed on. This is significant because it likely means the replacement just needs to be a tall tower. I would guess the damaged tower was reused from some previous rocket, or was originally designed as a support tower and later transitioned to just being a lightning tower. It is far heavier built than seems necessary for its current use. Consequently, they may be able to get away with partial repair based on the rest of the tower being stronger than needed.


Pocahontas said:
I’d be worried about all that concrete seeing that much heat and pressure on one side then how many every hundreds of tons falling on it.

I would think it’s going to be 4-6 months before they are launching from there again.

Perfect timing for the space x ipo
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Not much heat and pressure though. Again, big fireball, but little real energy. It was a fast flash fire, and most of the fire was hundred plus feet up, plus it was rising as it exploded. I expect both heat input was much lower than seen during a launch or static fire, and peak pressure may have been higher than launch, but fairly short duration. Outside of the engines and thrust structure, not alot of falling weight either. Most of the rocket structure is light aluminum, and was blasted outward. Only falling rocket bits I can see heavy enough to cause damage would be second stage engines, and they likely went up and away somewhere.
 
Void_of_Light said:
The Falcon Heavy is SpaceX’s most powerful currently operational rocket, capable of lifting 63,800 kg (140,660 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), 26,700 kg (58,860 lb) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and 16,800 kg (37,040 lb) to Mars Wikipedia+2.

I think they do.
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Thats the "theory" but they have yet to achieve a full earth orbit much less a moon visit and return. Then too none of the "private" ventures have managed the moon visit and return yet.
 
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