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Stock Market 2021

I'm in a different position than most of you, I have enough to retire but I can't afford to fuck it up :flipoff2: . The signs are there if you're paying attention, this isn't a healthy economy aside from a few specific stocks. Consumer confidence is dropping like a rock.


I mostly do relestate, once things settle down I'll start banging out some multifamily. I'll also short the shit out of some specific stocks when this bitch pops. The general market is 2x-3x over valued. ...... but the juicy bits are crypto and EV's
Well, if you'd have bought Ford under $5 last year like we talked about :flipoff2:
 
Sounds like you have all figure out. Good luck.
Far from it mate, far from it. But trying

While I consider you a bear from your posts (not the Overbear kind) :flipoff2:, I always appreciate your input and thoughts. You obviously know real estate a ton better than I do, and knowing your own market likely means you could make money even in down markets

I am certainly not in position to retire, even though I am basically debt free, own the house free and clear, and have pretty good nest eggs set aside for my wife and I

We have "only" lived in the states about 25 years, and spent the late 90's and 2000's building our businesses - so unable to stash vast amounts into 401k's. Her's way more successful than mine, and when that sells she will be OK for life. My business basically exists between my ears so zero chance to sell on / cash out, but the racing side makes me stupid money (for what I do) while getting the adrenaline buzz and camaraderie at the track. My trading makes almost the same stupid money - at least on good days, but managing the risk is key, and the mental stress on strings of red days can be really hard. But I can trade anywhere, anytime, anywhere in the world with just internet access and a laptop, and most days I am done 90 mins in

I am extremely worried with the money printing, and the out of control spending, and the decline into de-facto socialism, that the US will not be the beacon of freedom and democracy it was when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's and so desperately wanted to make my way to the land of the free, and home of the brave. This country has been unbelievably good to us, and we live better than 99% of folks on the planet and about 75% of the folks here, but .......at some point the bills are going to have to be paid, and the dollar might not be worth the paper it is printed on.

The ones paying the bills will be
  • the producers
  • the middle class
  • the smart ones who saved for their retirement, but will see inflation destroy most of those savings

To retire and keep living the (relatively) high life, I am looking to places in south east asia, the Indian sub-continent, and a couple spots in the Pacific. I have been fortunate to travel and while 3rd world countries have significant issues, one thing is constant, those with a decent amount of money (like US middle class type money) can live extremely good lives. With a cost of living anywhere from 1/5 - 1/10th of what it costs in the US, it then becomes viable to retire in the next 5 - 8 years and have enough $$ for the rest of my time on the planet.
 
I salute your plan.

What countries in particular are you talking about?
Among others

Thailand, though too many European expats have the same idea. I have a friend I grew up with in Chang Mai. He works six weeks a year in Australia, and spends the rest of the year with his Thai wife and her extended family on the land he has. Also have a Scottish friend I know through trading, retired from being a commercial fisherman and now lives on the beach a few hours south of Bangkok. He lives extremely well on less than $2K a month, extremely well. Tourist area's are too expensive, but he prefers living among the locals

Vietnam. Close Asian American friend of mine made his millions in the dot com era, retired to Thailand at 35 in the early 2000's. He tells me Vietnam is what Thailand was like 25 years ago. Cannot buy land, but can get long term leases, up to 99 years in some cases, my buddy is currently spending 9 months a year there.

Sri Lanka, and the south east coast of India, south of Chennai. Maldives are attractive, but perhaps too remote.

I have friends who live in Singapore who intend retiring in the Philipines or Malaysia. Not sure I can wrap my head around living in a muslim majority country though, but I plan to visit first before striking it off the list

Further down the list of places still to visit and explore
Madagascar, I grew up in South Africa, and my grand parents visited and bought land in Madagascar in the 70's. Extreme poverty, but extremely beautiful, and they never feared for their safety, and were so well treated by the locals - bit far from anywhere though, requiring connections through South Africa (I plan never to set foot there again if at all possible) or Seychelles to Europe

Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea. Not a fan on all the Aussies expats, and the security situation out of the cities and tourist area's is not great.

Hainan island is China's version of Florida, just without the meth and Florida man. Not high on the list to be honest, but when I head to SE Asia next I am at least going to visit.

I lived in the Caribbean for 5 years in the early 90's, loved it, but it is like constantly living in a tourist trap town over run with fat cruise ship passengers, and the annual threat of hurricanes, and generally low standard of living outside the exBrit colonies - not interested. Belize and British Guyana are appealing, but I need to visit first. The ABC islands are attractive, but I really want some land, and that becomes expensive on any island, especially any with direct flights from the US and / or Europe

Having lived in Colorado longer than anywhere else in my life, don't get me wrong I love it here, and am fortunate not to have to deal with the liberal shithole cities, so good chance I don't sell our place in the foothills, I was recently approached about a 5 year lease. But time to move somewhere warm, green, and on the beach.

Spend the days kiteboarding, and swinging from a hammock. Trade for 90 mins when the NYSE opens (makes Belize and Guyana attractive), but the guys in Thailand and Vietnam can get it done even with the time difference so it is possible.

Open to suggestions though, it will be more fun to visit these places and come up with a real short list. The actual divesting and moving will suck.
 
I've been sitting on a fair amount of CCL as a 1-2 year hold. Down 40%, I bought premature when we were "over it" after the 2nd? or 3rd? wave. still think it's a good one for longer term, as long as they can stay afloat.

hadn't seen JETS before, would have bought that instead of specific airlines if I knew that existed
 
I've been sitting on a fair amount of CCL as a 1-2 year hold. Down 40%, I bought premature when we were "over it" after the 2nd? or 3rd? wave. still think it's a good one for longer term, as long as they can stay afloat.

hadn't seen JETS before, would have bought that instead of specific airlines if I knew that existed
I did the same thing, so am in the same boat.
 
I did the same thing, so am in the same boat.
Well, I'm going for the dollar cost averaging with the latest bloodbath.

in for another 100 shares of both CCL and AAL. not huge $$, but I still think travel rebounds and it's a long term hold plan. I view it as a "safe" bet, versus some of the higher short-term rewards in a random tech stock i know nothing about.

Good day to buy, maybe. Tons of stuff down 5-10%
 
Omicron.jpg
 
Well, I'm going for the dollar cost averaging with the latest bloodbath.

in for another 100 shares of both CCL and AAL. not huge $$, but I still think travel rebounds and it's a long term hold plan. I view it as a "safe" bet, versus some of the higher short-term rewards in a random tech stock i know nothing about.

Good day to buy, maybe. Tons of stuff down 5-10%

I quadrupled my investment in CCL this morning. I think it could triple in 3-5 years. I think the world will learn to live with COVID and people will return to cruising.
 
I quadrupled my investment in CCL this morning. I think it could triple in 3-5 years. I think the world will learn to live with COVID and people will return to cruising.
Glad someone else is riding the ship with me :smokin: I'm VERY tempted to put in some more. Have $10-20k sitting on the side waiting to get in on something



Here's a question, didn't want to derail the Maxwell thread. This new state tax in Washington on long-term capital gains, 7% on gains over $250k. I'd think a large portion of people this applies to could just go buy another property in a different state, declare residency, and sell in a year. Am I wrong in that assumption?
Satya Nadella sells half his Microsoft stock, weeks before state implements capital gains tax
 
I quadrupled my investment in CCL this morning. I think it could triple in 3-5 years. I think the world will learn to live with COVID and people will return to cruising.
Bought 200 shares...logic feels solid...then again we'll see

Hoping my trailing stop loss works correctly.
 
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Bought 200 shares...logic feels solid...then again we'll see

Hoping my trailing stop loss works correctly.
I'm in for some more. I'm either a glutton for punishment, or I'll be happy in 6mon-1yr and fund a new daily driver

100 more shares of CCL, 35 more shares of AAL. that empties the $$ I had in the Vanguard holding account. $6-8k invested into the current dip. Puts me at 532 shares of CCL, 507 shares of AAL.


I KNEW oil was going to have a nice return after the Covid drop, but sat and watched XOM and BP jump and kept kicking myself for not putting my $$ where my mouth was. Not doing that again. Travel WILL be back. Right? right? :homer:
 
I'm in for some more. I'm either a glutton for punishment, or I'll be happy in 6mon-1yr and fund a new daily driver

100 more shares of CCL, 35 more shares of AAL. that empties the $$ I had in the Vanguard holding account. $6-8k invested into the current dip. Puts me at 532 shares of CCL, 507 shares of AAL.


I KNEW oil was going to have a nice return after the Covid drop, but sat and watched XOM and BP jump and kept kicking myself for not putting my $$ where my mouth was. Not doing that again. Travel WILL be back. Right? right? :homer:

Went in on CCL today as well. Guess we'll see how that turns out.

I got BP at around $21, thought about selling when it peaked over $30 a month or two ago, just gonna hang on it for now.
 
what the hell happened with docusign today?
 
what the hell happened with docusign today?
they lowered forward guidance, then bam ... right in the pooper

This is the flipfolpityy time at the tipytop time. Head and shoulders patterns in abundance ....


I'm holding the fire button on some SH
 
Went in on CCL today as well. Guess we'll see how that turns out.

I got BP at around $21, thought about selling when it peaked over $30 a month or two ago, just gonna hang on it for now.
Good play. I meant to drop in a little more but forgot. up 10% as it sits today

Good call on BP too. I got a bunch at $20, then another batch at $25 or so. average cost is probably $23-24 on my holdings so not too shabby
 
It looks like the party might be over for AMC.

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Im somewhere near my break even point between my different accounts. I think my highest average is around 500 shares at $28 and my lowest is around 500 shares at $12

Missed out on some decent money or a lot more sharea refusing to sell along the way.
I was happy with every purchase i made along the way so im not sure selling at break even is wise either... maybe just not look at it till after the new year
 
A 2 part question for the smart kids in the room.
I bought a little Ford stock at $5. There has been a couple times I have had my finger on the sell button, but so far I am sitting on it.
Thoughts on when to dump it?
Part 2, what to do with the proceeds of the sale? I don't know that sitting on cash right now is a good call. Is anything currently undervalued?
I am way to green to try options, calls, puts, etc.
 
Long term, you will never lose buying an index fund that tracks the market. Any of them should and will get you 10%+ annual return. I like QQQ and have been getting in to SPIAX. Both are near 30% this year but we are in clown world at the moment.
 
A 2 part question for the smart kids in the room.
I bought a little Ford stock at $5. There has been a couple times I have had my finger on the sell button, but so far I am sitting on it.
Thoughts on when to dump it?
Part 2, what to do with the proceeds of the sale? I don't know that sitting on cash right now is a good call. Is anything currently undervalued?
I am way to green to try options, calls, puts, etc.
I bought it around $4.xx and have bought and sold it to get extra shares. When it takes a big spike it usually drops a little after that and you can buy it again.

I should have sold it Monday and bought it back as it dropped off but wasn't following it close enough and missed it.
 
So at least three 1/4-1/2 point hikes coming next year instead of 2023, and slowdown to corporate bond purchases and the market goes up :confused:

I've got no idea anymore.
 
A 2 part question for the smart kids in the room.
I bought a little Ford stock at $5. There has been a couple times I have had my finger on the sell button, but so far I am sitting on it.
Thoughts on when to dump it?
Part 2, what to do with the proceeds of the sale? I don't know that sitting on cash right now is a good call. Is anything currently undervalued?
I am way to green to try options, calls, puts, etc.
I would sell the Ford stock. Maybe put 50% of the proceeds into VOO, and look and wait for a deal. A few different ideas have been posted in the last couple of pages.
 
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