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Stock Market 2021

XtremeJ

Wanker
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
893
Messages
232
Loc
Redstone Canyon, Masonville, Colorado, USA
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Norm

Newb
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
904
Messages
814
Loc
Cold North
Norm waiting for the "inevitable" market crash.

:flipoff2::lmao:

I'm in a different position than most of you, I have enough to retire but I can't afford to fuck it up :flipoff2: . The signs are there if you're paying attention, this isn't a healthy economy aside from a few specific stocks. Consumer confidence is dropping like a rock.


I mostly do relestate, once things settle down I'll start banging out some multifamily. I'll also short the shit out of some specific stocks when this bitch pops. The general market is 2x-3x over valued. ...... but the juicy bits are crypto and EV's
 

XtremeJ

Wanker
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
893
Messages
232
Loc
Redstone Canyon, Masonville, Colorado, USA
I'm in a different position than most of you, I have enough to retire but I can't afford to fuck it up :flipoff2: . The signs are there if you're paying attention, this isn't a healthy economy aside from a few specific stocks. Consumer confidence is dropping like a rock.


I mostly do relestate, once things settle down I'll start banging out some multifamily. I'll also short the shit out of some specific stocks when this bitch pops. The general market is 2x-3x over valued. ...... but the juicy bits are crypto and EV's

One could make the point the signs were there in 27, 87, 07, 20 too. If you hoarded your cash under the mattress - you never lost a cent, but you sure lost out on a LOT of gains.

Sure hope you have not been short TSLA Norm, :lmao:

Even Michael Burry (sp?, the big short guy who predicted 2008) has covered his shorts on TSLA.

How much of the current EV bs is being driven by all the free money being printed for the Build it Back Better Biden Greenwashing Bullshit? Should RIVN be worth more than F or GM combined, fuck no, but you have to find it funny / ironic / stupid that F investing in RIVN made them more money on IPO day than they made in the first 10 months of this year.

I am no fan of Crypto - but I own about 5 % in my investment accounts as part of being diversified. In the past, those funds would have been in gold / metals. I think WHEN the next correction happens (over 20% fall, not just a blip) Crypto will be the biggest beneficiary not a loser. If the crash is bad enough for banks to fail, crypto will be the safe haven, not the precious metals.

Waiting until the market starts to fail will be too late to short stocks, you will be just trying to jump on the end of the train as it has left the station. IF you believe that strongly, you should be hedging NOW.

Real Estate is the last place I would be putting money to work, when the shit hits the fan, and there is no more free money, and the music stops, the real estate market is going to crater. The only thing more overvalued at the moment is the stock market or BTC - :lmao::lmao::flipoff2:

The only real estate investments I see for long term (8 year plus, steady income) are not US or Europe based. I really like what I have researched about in south east asia and the indian subcontinent
 

Norm

Newb
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
904
Messages
814
Loc
Cold North
One could make the point the signs were there in 27, 87, 07, 20 too. If you hoarded your cash under the mattress - you never lost a cent, but you sure lost out on a LOT of gains.

Sure hope you have not been short TSLA Norm, :lmao:

Even Michael Burry (sp?, the big short guy who predicted 2008) has covered his shorts on TSLA.

How much of the current EV bs is being driven by all the free money being printed for the Build it Back Better Biden Greenwashing Bullshit? Should RIVN be worth more than F or GM combined, fuck no, but you have to find it funny / ironic / stupid that F investing in RIVN made them more money on IPO day than they made in the first 10 months of this year.

I am no fan of Crypto - but I own about 5 % in my investment accounts as part of being diversified. In the past, those funds would have been in gold / metals. I think WHEN the next correction happens (over 20% fall, not just a blip) Crypto will be the biggest beneficiary not a loser. If the crash is bad enough for banks to fail, crypto will be the safe haven, not the precious metals.

Waiting until the market starts to fail will be too late to short stocks, you will be just trying to jump on the end of the train as it has left the station. IF you believe that strongly, you should be hedging NOW.

Real Estate is the last place I would be putting money to work, when the shit hits the fan, and there is no more free money, and the music stops, the real estate market is going to crater. The only thing more overvalued at the moment is the stock market or BTC - :lmao::lmao::flipoff2:

The only real estate investments I see for long term (8 year plus, steady income) are not US or Europe based. I really like what I have researched about in south east asia and the indian subcontinent

Sounds like you have all figure out. Good luck.
 

Provience

Kill!
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Member Number
15
Messages
8,082
Loc
Thurston County, WA
I'm in a different position than most of you, I have enough to retire but I can't afford to fuck it up :flipoff2: . The signs are there if you're paying attention, this isn't a healthy economy aside from a few specific stocks. Consumer confidence is dropping like a rock.


I mostly do relestate, once things settle down I'll start banging out some multifamily. I'll also short the shit out of some specific stocks when this bitch pops. The general market is 2x-3x over valued. ...... but the juicy bits are crypto and EV's
Well, if you'd have bought Ford under $5 last year like we talked about :flipoff2:
 

XtremeJ

Wanker
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
893
Messages
232
Loc
Redstone Canyon, Masonville, Colorado, USA
Sounds like you have all figure out. Good luck.
Far from it mate, far from it. But trying

While I consider you a bear from your posts (not the Overbear kind) :flipoff2:, I always appreciate your input and thoughts. You obviously know real estate a ton better than I do, and knowing your own market likely means you could make money even in down markets

I am certainly not in position to retire, even though I am basically debt free, own the house free and clear, and have pretty good nest eggs set aside for my wife and I

We have "only" lived in the states about 25 years, and spent the late 90's and 2000's building our businesses - so unable to stash vast amounts into 401k's. Her's way more successful than mine, and when that sells she will be OK for life. My business basically exists between my ears so zero chance to sell on / cash out, but the racing side makes me stupid money (for what I do) while getting the adrenaline buzz and camaraderie at the track. My trading makes almost the same stupid money - at least on good days, but managing the risk is key, and the mental stress on strings of red days can be really hard. But I can trade anywhere, anytime, anywhere in the world with just internet access and a laptop, and most days I am done 90 mins in

I am extremely worried with the money printing, and the out of control spending, and the decline into de-facto socialism, that the US will not be the beacon of freedom and democracy it was when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's and so desperately wanted to make my way to the land of the free, and home of the brave. This country has been unbelievably good to us, and we live better than 99% of folks on the planet and about 75% of the folks here, but .......at some point the bills are going to have to be paid, and the dollar might not be worth the paper it is printed on.

The ones paying the bills will be
  • the producers
  • the middle class
  • the smart ones who saved for their retirement, but will see inflation destroy most of those savings

To retire and keep living the (relatively) high life, I am looking to places in south east asia, the Indian sub-continent, and a couple spots in the Pacific. I have been fortunate to travel and while 3rd world countries have significant issues, one thing is constant, those with a decent amount of money (like US middle class type money) can live extremely good lives. With a cost of living anywhere from 1/5 - 1/10th of what it costs in the US, it then becomes viable to retire in the next 5 - 8 years and have enough $$ for the rest of my time on the planet.
 

Wizzle

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 29, 2020
Member Number
2793
Messages
269
Far from it mate, far from it. But trying

While I consider you a bear from your posts (not the Overbear kind) :flipoff2:, I always appreciate your input and thoughts. You obviously know real estate a ton better than I do, and knowing your own market likely means you could make money even in down markets

I am certainly not in position to retire, even though I am basically debt free, own the house free and clear, and have pretty good nest eggs set aside for my wife and I

We have "only" lived in the states about 25 years, and spent the late 90's and 2000's building our businesses - so unable to stash vast amounts into 401k's. Her's way more successful than mine, and when that sells she will be OK for life. My business basically exists between my ears so zero chance to sell on / cash out, but the racing side makes me stupid money (for what I do) while getting the adrenaline buzz and camaraderie at the track. My trading makes almost the same stupid money - at least on good days, but managing the risk is key, and the mental stress on strings of red days can be really hard. But I can trade anywhere, anytime, anywhere in the world with just internet access and a laptop, and most days I am done 90 mins in

I am extremely worried with the money printing, and the out of control spending, and the decline into de-facto socialism, that the US will not be the beacon of freedom and democracy it was when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's and so desperately wanted to make my way to the land of the free, and home of the brave. This country has been unbelievably good to us, and we live better than 99% of folks on the planet and about 75% of the folks here, but .......at some point the bills are going to have to be paid, and the dollar might not be worth the paper it is printed on.

The ones paying the bills will be
  • the producers
  • the middle class
  • the smart ones who saved for their retirement, but will see inflation destroy most of those savings

To retire and keep living the (relatively) high life, I am looking to places in south east asia, the Indian sub-continent, and a couple spots in the Pacific. I have been fortunate to travel and while 3rd world countries have significant issues, one thing is constant, those with a decent amount of money (like US middle class type money) can live extremely good lives. With a cost of living anywhere from 1/5 - 1/10th of what it costs in the US, it then becomes viable to retire in the next 5 - 8 years and have enough $$ for the rest of my time on the planet.
I salute your plan.

What countries in particular are you talking about?
 

XtremeJ

Wanker
Joined
May 21, 2020
Member Number
893
Messages
232
Loc
Redstone Canyon, Masonville, Colorado, USA
I salute your plan.

What countries in particular are you talking about?
Among others

Thailand, though too many European expats have the same idea. I have a friend I grew up with in Chang Mai. He works six weeks a year in Australia, and spends the rest of the year with his Thai wife and her extended family on the land he has. Also have a Scottish friend I know through trading, retired from being a commercial fisherman and now lives on the beach a few hours south of Bangkok. He lives extremely well on less than $2K a month, extremely well. Tourist area's are too expensive, but he prefers living among the locals

Vietnam. Close Asian American friend of mine made his millions in the dot com era, retired to Thailand at 35 in the early 2000's. He tells me Vietnam is what Thailand was like 25 years ago. Cannot buy land, but can get long term leases, up to 99 years in some cases, my buddy is currently spending 9 months a year there.

Sri Lanka, and the south east coast of India, south of Chennai. Maldives are attractive, but perhaps too remote.

I have friends who live in Singapore who intend retiring in the Philipines or Malaysia. Not sure I can wrap my head around living in a muslim majority country though, but I plan to visit first before striking it off the list

Further down the list of places still to visit and explore
Madagascar, I grew up in South Africa, and my grand parents visited and bought land in Madagascar in the 70's. Extreme poverty, but extremely beautiful, and they never feared for their safety, and were so well treated by the locals - bit far from anywhere though, requiring connections through South Africa (I plan never to set foot there again if at all possible) or Seychelles to Europe

Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea. Not a fan on all the Aussies expats, and the security situation out of the cities and tourist area's is not great.

Hainan island is China's version of Florida, just without the meth and Florida man. Not high on the list to be honest, but when I head to SE Asia next I am at least going to visit.

I lived in the Caribbean for 5 years in the early 90's, loved it, but it is like constantly living in a tourist trap town over run with fat cruise ship passengers, and the annual threat of hurricanes, and generally low standard of living outside the exBrit colonies - not interested. Belize and British Guyana are appealing, but I need to visit first. The ABC islands are attractive, but I really want some land, and that becomes expensive on any island, especially any with direct flights from the US and / or Europe

Having lived in Colorado longer than anywhere else in my life, don't get me wrong I love it here, and am fortunate not to have to deal with the liberal shithole cities, so good chance I don't sell our place in the foothills, I was recently approached about a 5 year lease. But time to move somewhere warm, green, and on the beach.

Spend the days kiteboarding, and swinging from a hammock. Trade for 90 mins when the NYSE opens (makes Belize and Guyana attractive), but the guys in Thailand and Vietnam can get it done even with the time difference so it is possible.

Open to suggestions though, it will be more fun to visit these places and come up with a real short list. The actual divesting and moving will suck.
 

budget76

Thread Killer
Joined
May 20, 2020
Member Number
473
Messages
169
Loc
Hartford, CT
I've been sitting on a fair amount of CCL as a 1-2 year hold. Down 40%, I bought premature when we were "over it" after the 2nd? or 3rd? wave. still think it's a good one for longer term, as long as they can stay afloat.

hadn't seen JETS before, would have bought that instead of specific airlines if I knew that existed
 

DannyK

Well-known member
Joined
May 27, 2020
Member Number
1547
Messages
278
Loc
Stokeridge, NC
I've been sitting on a fair amount of CCL as a 1-2 year hold. Down 40%, I bought premature when we were "over it" after the 2nd? or 3rd? wave. still think it's a good one for longer term, as long as they can stay afloat.

hadn't seen JETS before, would have bought that instead of specific airlines if I knew that existed
I did the same thing, so am in the same boat.
 
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