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Stock Market 2021

Wizzle said:
Went back in on Zillow, taking a gamble the whole house purchase fiasco has settled
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Wizzle said:
I am a stupid stupid man
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I have Z in a downtrend since Mid Feb, although it did briefly break out 10/13 and again on 10/21. Look s more like a dead cat bounce now though rather than a break out.

Did you not have any stops set? The 21 EMA would have been around 92, and worse case should have been around 84 (bottom of volume shelf), though that MAY not have triggered yesterday (84.62 was the low yesterday) but you would have been out at open today at least.

IF there is any good news, there is SOME support around the 66 - 66.50 area (was resistance June to Aug last year). You MAY see a dead cat type bounce from this area, but if this support fails, it could fall into the low 50's high 40's next.

Still ouch. From what I am reading, most of this is Zillow having to list the properties they bought in AZ back on the market around 5% less than they paid. Sounds like high entry prices, labor and construction material shortages, and a cooling market are mostly to blame, but there are hints of cash flow issues which is why I think we see todays capitulation. Score one for the shorts

Welcome to the bag holder club. Learn from this though, and use stop loss orders, every trade,

Don't worry happens to all of us, I finally closed out some BA today that I have been holding since 2/20, and added to on the way down during Covid. Felt good to take profits, but honestly should have sold last year, taken the loss, and used that money to make money in the last 18 months, rather than just seeing it in my portfolio everyday and pissing me off. Should have had stop losses set, and should never have added to a losing position. One thing to dollar cost average down (if using EMA's as a buying signal), but stupid to add to a losing position hoping it won't die further.

After being master of the universe a couple weeks ago, slaughtering TSLA options, the market has sure show me who is in charge the past week. After a run of red days last week, I have only been closing out positions this week in the run up to FOMC - noon MST today. My gut feel is that the FED will announce they are finally going to stop supporting the market with printed money, but also think this news is expected, so we may not see the drop the doomsday folk are predicting.

While I have sucked day trading, my swing and investment accounts are rocking. Strange how that works.
 
XtremeJ said:
I have Z in a downtrend since Mid Feb, although it did briefly break out 10/13 and again on 10/21. Look s more like a dead cat bounce now though rather than a break out.

Did you not have any stops set? The 21 EMA would have been around 92, and worse case should have been around 84 (bottom of volume shelf), though that MAY not have triggered yesterday (84.62 was the low yesterday) but you would have been out at open today at least.

IF there is any good news, there is SOME support around the 66 - 66.50 area (was resistance June to Aug last year). You MAY see a dead cat type bounce from this area, but if this support fails, it could fall into the low 50's high 40's next.

Still ouch. From what I am reading, most of this is Zillow having to list the properties they bought in AZ back on the market around 5% less than they paid. Sounds like high entry prices, labor and construction material shortages, and a cooling market are mostly to blame, but there are hints of cash flow issues which is why I think we see todays capitulation. Score one for the shorts

Welcome to the bag holder club. Learn from this though, and use stop loss orders, every trade,

Don't worry happens to all of us, I finally closed out some BA today that I have been holding since 2/20, and added to on the way down during Covid. Felt good to take profits, but honestly should have sold last year, taken the loss, and used that money to make money in the last 18 months, rather than just seeing it in my portfolio everyday and pissing me off. Should have had stop losses set, and should never have added to a losing position. One thing to dollar cost average down (if using EMA's as a buying signal), but stupid to add to a losing position hoping it won't die further.

After being master of the universe a couple weeks ago, slaughtering TSLA options, the market has sure show me who is in charge the past week. After a run of red days last week, I have only been closing out positions this week in the run up to FOMC - noon MST today. My gut feel is that the FED will announce they are finally going to stop supporting the market with printed money, but also think this news is expected, so we may not see the drop the doomsday folk are predicting.

While I have sucked day trading, my swing and investment accounts are rocking. Strange how that works.
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Glad to see you back with the informative posts again on this thread. I really like your inisghts. Every time i read this, i just think about how I really need to get into swing/daytrading to actually make myself some money. But then life reminds me that I have a busy day job and I cant keep up day to day or even throughout the day. Then i just fall back to making sure I get 40-50k a yr into vanguard funds and S&P funds etc. I just worry that I am giving up so much potential profit and am condeming myself to never making it out of the middle class :homer:
 
The insanity continues. Approaching 400 now.

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TSLA

I stayed away from it for years because I could make zero sense of the financials, this was ten years ago, and honestly I still cannot make sense of the financials but I got tired of seeing how much money I was leaving on the table from NOT trading TSLA.

Does it make sense to have a PE ratio of almost 400? Fuck no. Does it make sense that TSLA is worth more than the next 10 car companies combined - fuck no. Does it make sense that TSLA price has gone from below 400 to over 1200 in about a year, and TSLA still only sells as many cars in a year as Ford sells F150's in a month - Fuck no. Of note, F hit a ATH today - 18.xx. But if you are smart and can tolerate a little risk, you are foolish if you do not have at least some TSLA in your portfolio.

One issue is that TSLA is gaining market share with every car they sell - every other OEM (apart from niche Chinese E-vehicle companies) is losing market share, or at best now selling an e-vehicle INSTEAD of a gas or diesel one.

Another issue - TSLA is not just a car company, and while it will take decades or more to recoup some of the investment, the battery factories, and the battery tech, as well as the Solar tech will become steady income streams for the company. Some analysts reckon that the intellectual property relating to "self-driving" cars will be a far larger income stream eventually than selling actual cars will be - time will tell.

Something else I hear often that contributes to how wild TSLA has become. Greenwashing. Half the crazy liberals I hang out with are Musk fanboi's and they are buying TSLA as Musk is going to save the planet from climate change, and at least they feel like they are supporting the cause by owning the stock, and profiting from it. I am not hearing anyone talk about selling or taking profits, if anything, folks are loading up even more.

Being long from the 250 area, (from pre-split announcement more than a year ago), I bought post split, and really loaded up once it broke through resistance in the 670 area (and thought I was being risky then), those add's are now approaching 100% return on equity in about 3 months. Damn.

Am I recommending buying here at record levels, absolutely not. Way extended, way over priced, but ..........
I will be buying on any dip back to the 9ema, even better if we see the 21 ema. 9 is around 1086, and 21 is 940-ish. Risk would have to be to at least the 50ema. Not a good risk reward here for sure, but .....I will be damned but TSLA sure looks like it is actually flagging higher here. After the big run up from 800, it has now spent a few days consolidating in the 1100 - 1200 area, and the pattern is looking bullish to the upside, on the daily, even on the hourly. Should it break over ATH's it can easily run another few hundred dollars (I think $1500 will be a magnet), will run the fib extensions when I am in front of my screens again, I struggle on ThinkorSwim compared to E-trade Pro.

Options are so juiced on TSLA right now that the premiums get devoured if the stock consolidates at all. If you have higher levels of options access then selling the calls has paid off well the last couple days, all that premium decay goes straight to your wallet.

I think TSLA has one more move to the upside before it either consolidates or retraces. A major retracement can easily see sub 1000 again, possibly even 840's, so know your risk.

Happy trading, as always manage your risk. If you use the above info, and risk the mortgage and lose it all I claim no knowledge, IF you put the mortgage on options and it runs up 1000% be sure to PM for address so you can send my commission check. :smokin::flipoff2:
 
TSLA defies all logic. I finally broke down and bought ARKK at 106 to get some exposure to TSLA. I honestly think we are in for a major reckoning at some point in a lot of things. Including things I own like crypto. But you gotta ride the waves while the surf's up.....
 
Anyone see any reason in the world not to back the truck up and load up on X? Selling at 2.3x earnings. Hell, I'd buy about any company in town if the owner said he'll sell it to me for 2 year's profits.
 
GarScramb said:
Anyone see any reason in the world not to back the truck up and load up on X? Selling at 2.3x earnings. Hell, I'd buy about any company in town if the owner said he'll sell it to me for 2 year's profits.
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Steel is insanely high and they will aren't making a profit. Cleveland-cliffs is basically the same price and they turn double the ebitda on the same revenue. Maybe I'm missing something but the P/E is 2.3 for a reason.

Steel and minerals are hard to be excited about because energy going up hits that sector hard.
 
speed bump said:
Steel is insanely high and they will aren't making a profit. Cleveland-cliffs is basically the same price and they turn double the ebitda on the same revenue. Maybe I'm missing something but the P/E is 2.3 for a reason.

Steel and minerals are hard to be excited about because energy going up hits that sector hard.
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That's the thing though. Every quarter they have made a very nice profit. Expected to make $15/share for the full year. Stock is selling at $26.
 
TSLA says screw retracing to any meaningful moving averages. Another leg higher today. Probably another day that selling calls let you harvest premium. Too risky for me, I have some stops set so when it does retrace I can take profits and rebalance a couple of portfolio's,

Got incredibly lucky today, was 95% down on SAVA 75 11/5 options, should have taken the loss a few days ago. Then it is halted before open today, news that some investigation found no fraud, so when it did open at 80 plus and ran to 100, I was able to get out along the way from 200% up to 300% up. Take lucky over good any day.

Day trade account is now almost exactly where I was two weeks ago. Honestly, the mental stress and wild swings in mood based on how I have been trading are one of the hardest things to deal with. From king of the world, to having the market slap me around like a rented crack whore for ten days to a day of lucky trading, and back to where I was two weeks ago, fuck me man. But I still learn a lot every single day I trade.

I think we are going to see a melt up on the market in the next couple months.

X is on my shit list, lost money on it last year, lost money on options this week, got out at 50% down. I find it really hard to trade, so would rather stay away and concentrate on the stocks I understand better
 
I totally did this wrong… my first time buying a call and I was conservative… should have bought ten contracts
 

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I sold 100 shares of Ford stock this morning for $19.00. I still have 105 shares so I'm not playing big time but my average price per share was only $5.45. If the Ford stock drops back down to a reasonable level I'll use my $1900 and buy as many shares as I can.
 
XtremeJ said:
TSLA says screw retracing to any meaningful moving averages. Another leg higher today. Probably another day that selling calls let you harvest premium. Too risky for me, I have some stops set so when it does retrace I can take profits and rebalance a couple of portfolio's,

Got incredibly lucky today, was 95% down on SAVA 75 11/5 options, should have taken the loss a few days ago. Then it is halted before open today, news that some investigation found no fraud, so when it did open at 80 plus and ran to 100, I was able to get out along the way from 200% up to 300% up. Take lucky over good any day.

Day trade account is now almost exactly where I was two weeks ago. Honestly, the mental stress and wild swings in mood based on how I have been trading are one of the hardest things to deal with. From king of the world, to having the market slap me around like a rented crack whore for ten days to a day of lucky trading, and back to where I was two weeks ago, fuck me man. But I still learn a lot every single day I trade.

I think we are going to see a melt up on the market in the next couple months.

X is on my shit list, lost money on it last year, lost money on options this week, got out at 50% down. I find it really hard to trade, so would rather stay away and concentrate on the stocks I understand better
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I'm 9 cents shy of doubling my money on tesla since mid June. Think I'm going to sell half and let the other half ride. I did similar with Nvidia, right before it split 4:1:homer::lmao:
 
I have a bunch of IBM. They just spun off one of their divisions into its own publicly traded company Kyndryl, which went live today, so now I have some of that as well. (IBM shareholders got 1 of the new company shares for every 5 held of IBM)

Seems to be the general consensus to sell the new one off immediately as it's almost certainly going to go down until the new company gets their act together.

Any thoughts on that? I still have all my shares of IBM and the value didn't change (aside from normal trading movement), is this new company basically just free money?
 
Free money. Unless you need the cash I would let the new company ride. It may take several months to find a trading range and then you can decide whether to sell or not

Most IPOs recently are now over their listing price. I don’t follow IBM. What does the new company do?
 
XtremeJ said:
Most IPOs recently are now over their listing price. I don’t follow IBM. What does the new company do?
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IT infrastructure...it was a low-margin legacy business that was a resource suck for the high-margin cloud/AI stuff that IBM wants to expand more into going forward. Not that either one is a bad business model on its own, but sort of conflicting under the same roof. As independent companies they can both be optimized better.

Earnings will drop for IBM but they expect overall profitability to be much better, guess we'll see. I'm in it for the dividends at this point so hopefully they don't make any drastic changes in that regard.
 
jpmassey said:
I just don't get it. It's basically bitcoin the US Dollar at this point.
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FIFY



I bought a single share of TSLA for ~$200 back in 2019 (pre stock split). While I (and Musk) agree 100% the stock is wayyy overvalued...I'm not upset about it. Unfortunately I did sell the 4 bonus shares when price redacted to $800...but I'll continue to let the one share ride (+~2,800% and climbing).

No doubt its overvalued. But hell, Cathie Wood believes it will conservatively climb to $3000/share. How? Clown. World. Using. Clown. Money.
 
NOKia looking posed to have a good year next year, anyone seeing otherwise? It's got my interest in general, forecasts are looking good with network expansion and the business refocus. Plus it has the slight potential to become a meme stock since it showed signs earlier in the year.
 
Rivin is has its ipo tomorrow. Might be interesting. Planning on throwing a few bucks at it.
 
Pocahontas said:
Rivin is has its ipo tomorrow. Might be interesting. Planning on throwing a few bucks at it.
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tomorrow or wed? I was thinking the same thing. They had a good showing on the Motortrend mini-series
 
It is Wednesday, I was talking to a friend and his nephew works for them. He said it was tomorrow so I just assumed he was correct and you know what they say when you assume.

I saw that on motortrend but didn't watch it, one of the many things on the ill get around to it list.
 
GarScramb said:
TSLA defies all logic. I finally broke down and bought ARKK at 106 to get some exposure to TSLA. I honestly think we are in for a major reckoning at some point in a lot of things. Including things I own like crypto. But you gotta ride the waves while the surf's up.....
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I thought it was over priced when I didn't buy it at $60 I was waiting for $50.

I bough some Lucid back in september. I'll grab some Rivian next week .
 
TSLA did pull back to the 9ema but pre market. And only on the Elon selling my shares if Twitter votes yes BS

X had a nice day today. My options were for Friday. Fuck.

Took ABNB long and sold but the much better play was short

BLNK finally paid today. Jan options over 125% thanks Biden pork bill.

MARA up 50% since I bought a few weeks ago. This was a long term play but damn …..

LCID. Stopped me out early and I missed the long play until it broke out.

TTD options paid nice during the conference call and holding some as I think we may see some upgrades post earnings

Advanced the day trade account 5% today but some were swing gains.

AMD WTF? Three news bumps today. Of course I took partial profits yesterday. Wish I had more shares though. Been long since 98 and again at 107. Missed adds though in retrospect

CRWD. Adds in low 260’s already paying. Wager this could see 300 before end of year.

Happy trading. Manage your risk
 
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