Either I’m way off on my market theory, or this is the most epic bear trap ever. I still think some more ass kicking is in our near future.
Staying nimble, updating stop orders once the trade turns green, and limiting size are my strategies for now.
In April the "experts" were telling us
- the recovery will take years
- there are no V bottom recoveries
- worst is yet to come
- doom and gloom
IF you listened to them you have now missed out on a couple of the best months in the market ever, over 100% on some stocks (CRWD is low 90's from mid 30's), and now have some serious FOMO (fear of missing out)
Really glad I turned to day trading a couple years ago, as I had to throw everything I knew as an investor and as a value trader out of the window and follow market sentiment. That has made this a much easier period to be in, as IF I had invested according to my brain and gut feel, I would be seriously red. Do I think the market is over-valued, heck yes, am I going to trade against market sentiment, absolutely not
Seems like now, those short on the market are getting FOMO and buying every dip. SPY basically spent 4 weeks consolidating between 275 and 295 before the recent breakout, not a small range buy also valid given the volatility index's. Now we have broken 300, 308 seems to show significant resistance, and honestly we could test the 275 area IF Q2 numbers are way worse than estimated. Retest March low's - not very likely.
Remember Stock Market does not equal Economy. Trade market sentiment, trying to go counter market is going to hurt. Do not marry any position, set your stops and be prepared to go all cash when the next big retest happens.
Seeing your earlier post, looks like you have a plan that will work for you - that is all that counts