Just got this from friend that owns a realty company, because I asked.
Here’s your September 2024 real estate market update for San Juan County, NM, from XXXX XXXX at XXXX Properties. We take care of analyzing the data, so you don’t have to.
The total number of listings increased again last month to 189, with 91 new listings added. However, we’re still 3% behind last year’s total new listings year to date. Interestingly, there has been a 35% rise in listings for homes priced over $500k during the same period. This is concerning for middle-class buyers, as it could signal fewer affordable options. It’s important to note that just because these homes are listed at higher prices doesn’t mean they’re selling at that rate. In fact, sales for $500k+ homes are down 6% compared to last year, suggesting that some sellers may have optimistic expectations. We’ll need to watch how this develops.
Last year, we saw a similar increase in listings through November, followed by a decline until April. If the Fed’s predictions hold true and we see a rate drop early next year, prices could rise again. However, if rates don’t drop, inventory may continue to grow, which could help stabilize prices. Regardless, there’s no indication of a market crash.
One of the reasons for the inventory increase last month was a significant drop in sold listings—we saw a 44% decrease month over month. This may be why you’ve heard from your friends in real estate that times are tough right now.
The most notable statistic this month is the gap between Median List Prices and Median Sales Prices. This is the largest difference we’ve seen so far, which shows that sellers may not be fully prepared for the market shift, and buyers aren’t willing to meet those price expectations. The Active Median List Price is $365,000, and new listings are averaging $315,000. Meanwhile, the Median Sold Price dropped 4% to $254,950.
There’s some positive news for buyers with strong credit—loan rates are now in the high 5’s, which is great. While it’s a good time to buy, things could improve further. Sellers who haven’t been keeping up with the shifting market are going to need to adjust. It’s unlikely that we’ll see a significant rate drop anytime soon, so inventory may dip slightly before continuing to rise. Our MLS typically carries around 400 homes in inventory, but we’re currently at less than half of that. It’s a long road to recovery post-COVID.
Let us know if you have any questions—we’re here to help.