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?? about the 'news' reporting on the stock market

jeepyj

Middlesex NY
Joined
May 19, 2020
Member Number
57
Messages
442
Loc
Middlesex NY
Whenever the evening news reports shit on the stock market, they always seem to attribute some event or shit as the driver. such as . . .

Somewhat fake headline. "Amid coronavirus concerns and uncertainty in the Georgia senate race, the stock market lost 125 points."

Do they talk to people to find out why the market reacts a certain way or do they just make shit up? I'm inclined to believe they just make shit up. They might as well say "The bills won yesterday so the market dropped 500 points." or "It snowed like a motherfucker so the market rose" [side note. I think I'd make a good journalist. :lmao:]

Educate me.

.
 
If it bleeds it leads
I was working at a customer's place, he was somekind of stock guru, he had the FED Reserve head on his TV the guy droned on and on and on. I never could understand what he was saying, finally asked the customer if he understood, he looked at me like I was really dumb and said yeah the interest rates are going to stay the same.
 
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I used to believe that the major news networks had a person down on the floor of the stock exchange in NY getting real time information from the brokers/traders. I now believe that the media just makes up whatever headline they feel like might be causing the market to rise or drop.
 
They can't explain how it really works so they just make shit up. Sort of like religion . . .

You know what a Fugayzi is?

Mark Hanna said:
Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real.
 
They take a hit and have an epiphany. :laughing:

I use to work in a newsroom in my early 20s (technical director) Their entire existence depends on you thinking they have all the answers and bank on your short term memory. The biggest egos you'll ever seen in a lifetime.
 
It's all made up. I know a guy who makes a pretty good living off of the stock market using astrology and he does better than most who study market trends, stock reports, news reports, etc...
 
They can't explain how it really works so they just make shit up. Sort of like religion . . .

This. They have some sort of belief that financial movements depend on real world actions. Sometimes the real world influences things, but usually the market fluctuations depend on the programming of many, many competing computers. Buying and selling depend on reaching certain numerical conditions set by the people driving the computers. There isn't much human intervention in the market anymore, not like it used to be. But the news has to have something to talk about for several hours every night. People wont tune in to hear "The market went up and down today because computers bought and sold some stuff today".
 
Legalized and structured gambling. Anyone who disagrees, please explain how it is not.

Add in that there is just a *little* bit of cheating or using advantages allowed (like having insight that others might not), but not too much (insider trading, market manipulation is generally illegal) and you are absolutely right.
 
All the major news gets their stock headlines from a single source, probably some :expert: texting in the headlines while he is snorting coke off some hookers ass.
 
AR-170229900.jpg
 
Legalized and structured gambling. Anyone who disagrees, please explain how it is not.

hook.jpg

I'll take your bait.
BMO is a company that has been around since 1817 (not a typo - over 200 years) which has steadily increased in value through strategic business decisions, and paid out part of its profits to shareholders of the company.
so I buy 100 shares of BMO Bank of Montreal which makes me a part owner. The price I pay today is determined by the market - what price is someone willing to accept for the shares they own.

Now as an owner, I am entitled to a share of the profits in the form of dividends that the company distributes quarterly to shareholders and has done so without interruption for over 190 years. Considering the shorter life expectancy from decades ago, that is easily 4 or more LIFETIMES. the current dividend yield is about 4ish percent.
In addition to this, as the value of the company increases, the value of my shares increase as well (and as the value of the company decreases, so do my shares).
I see this as a disciplined investment strategy vs rolling the dice at a casino, which IS gambling.
 

I'll take your bait.
BMO is a company that has been around since 1817 (not a typo - over 200 years) which has steadily increased in value through strategic business decisions, and paid out part of its profits to shareholders of the company.
so I buy 100 shares of BMO Bank of Montreal which makes me a part owner. The price I pay today is determined by the market - what price is someone willing to accept for the shares they own.

Now as an owner, I am entitled to a share of the profits in the form of dividends that the company distributes quarterly to shareholders and has done so without interruption for over 190 years. Considering the shorter life expectancy from decades ago, that is easily 4 or more LIFETIMES. the current dividend yield is about 4ish percent.
In addition to this, as the value of the company increases, the value of my shares increase as well (and as the value of the company decreases, so do my shares).
I see this as a disciplined investment strategy vs rolling the dice at a casino, which IS gambling.

You have no control of the direction of the business, or how it will be affected by changing business environment, politics or culture. You are sitting there with your fingers crossed hoping things continue as they have. Sounds like roulette, the wheel came up black the last three bets, so that means it should come up black again.

I am not trying to be too flip here. I do understand the reason for investing in business, from both sides of it. However, the vast majority of people who invest do not have enough money in any one stock to maintain any kind of controlling share, and so are just along for the ride, looking at charts, trying to feel confident, with nothing much more than a pocketful of hope. Companies go out of business and you lose it all. You can go on all you want about historical consistency, market research and market statistics, but all that can be applied to straight up vegas gambling also. When you go to the casino and choose a game to play, you are doing so based on your acceptable level of risk and experience with the percentages that can be had in that particular game. Same thing with the stock market. You chose stocks that best fit your acceptance of risk and have done some research to know if you might be on the up side during your investment period. No difference.
 
Investing for the long term used to make sense when dividends were the norm, now they're the exception. Most institutional investors are speculating and looking to get in or out in a nanosecond.

Take Wynn Resorts for example, (a company I know a lot about having worked there in an executive position). In 2018 it was over $200 per share, Steve Wynn was still the Chairman, China and Vegas and other interests around the world were flying high, so yeah, maybe it was a $200 stock based on the number of shares outstanding. In March it was all the way down to $35, no air travel, no Chinese whales, no March Madness, no LV Raider spillover, on and on. They shut down the sister property Encore because they literally couldn't afford to keep the lights on, they've lost massive amounts of money every quarter since Q1 2020, and yet it trades at $110 today...in my mind that's a $40 stock. Will it come back, I think so, but not anytime soon, probably not till 2023 which is a lifetime these days.

As far as the reporting goes, I like CNBC, they're informed, they ask good questions of their guests, and the guests usually have cred.
 
You are right, you are just along for the ride but riding along with someone who has knowledge, experience and skill in growing a company certainly has to be better than riding on a roulette wheel or riding on a roll of the dice which truly are random? With investing you may not be the one in control but at least there is someone in control. With gambling there is no control at all.
and sorry but I totally disagree with your analogy that investing is like the roulette wheel " came up black the last 3 times so has to come up black again". In fact, investing is exactly the opposite - once the roulette wheel is in motion, there is no external input to guide it to red or black. It simply is going to end where it ends.
With investing there is lots of external input (some good, some bad) that can guide the outcome (for better or for worse).
 
I think a lot of it has to do with the individual investing, too. Sophisticated investors who are very knowledgeable about how the systems work, the companies they are investing in, and the external forces in play can absolutely do well, barring unexpected factors (Rona, for example). They are doing the least "gambling", but there is still a chance the roulette wheel will land on Rona, or whatever. But thats all part of their calculated risk assessment.

Then you have the retail investors (and especially the retail investors who wrongly think they have some level of sophistication) who only remember their wins and forget their losses, and begin to take bigger uncalculated risks, or only focus on details while ignoring the big picture (on one hand picking stocks based on dividends=good but on the other hand ignoring volatility of share price). The ones who don't really know how it all works, and the ones who only think they do, are really mostly just gambling imo.
 
You are right, you are just along for the ride but riding along with someone who has knowledge, experience and skill in growing a company certainly has to be better than riding on a roulette wheel or riding on a roll of the dice which truly are random? With investing you may not be the one in control but at least there is someone in control. With gambling there is no control at all.
and sorry but I totally disagree with your analogy that investing is like the roulette wheel " came up black the last 3 times so has to come up black again". In fact, investing is exactly the opposite - once the roulette wheel is in motion, there is no external input to guide it to red or black. It simply is going to end where it ends.
With investing there is lots of external input (some good, some bad) that can guide the outcome (for better or for worse).

counting cards in blackjack can reduce risk and can lead to a better win ratio.

or

"With investing there is lots of external input (some good, some bad) that can guide the outcome (for better or for worse)."

Different words. Same thing.



Look, investing is completely legal and pretty important tool for getting the funding companies may need to get to the next level. But anyone who isn't looking at it in the terms of a complex gamble really shouldn't be investing to begin with. Investing professionals are simply better at counting the cards, but no guarantee of success.
 
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