Stock Market 2026

Thanks, I should have explained that part too.


If you are a buy and hold it for a long time investor, and you are in for the ups and downs, it may be a good fit for you. If you prefer more control, definitely stick with the ETFs.
 
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Closing out CRSR yup, I had missed that bump :laughing: oh well, can't win em all
 
2JZ said:
I've got a few stocks doing this. Trying to figure out the best way to proceed. Gut instinct says trim profits. But how much? Thinking I should at least trim what I've put in. In this case it's like $28k. Thoughts?
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pretty interesting chart, looks like it made it all the way up to $150
 
rockota said:
$1755... $36K invested a year ago would be worth $1.7m today.

crazy
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It's almost 80% of my buddies portfolio, he's got just over 1500 shares. Again, he'll take some profits in January after the long term gains have kicked in, but he'll have to be smart about how much he takes out in case it bumps him in tax brackets, and he's in CA, so there's that tax load as well.
 
By the last part of that . . . . . . do you mean there is/are additional CA taxes on capital gains or just that they are higher there ?

Re: Rocketlab, Schwab Equity Ratings rates it an "F". I studied their info but do not understand why or how ? They rate "prospects" "appreciation" over 12 months when the data clearly shows the opposite.

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Rocket stocks under pressure after the boom on the launchpad last week, ASTS, RKLB, etc.

Would also be wary here, SPCX will IPO in two weeks, and there are a lot of stocks and a lot of sectors that are going to be under pressure. There is going to be massive buying in SPCX and that money has to move out from other sectors. SpaceX is the most solid of the space companies, with a balance sheet of sorts. Most of these other rocket companies are more vapor ware than anything else. Or a bunch of shills like ASTS that do not own or build their own flight equipment, the whole premise is around leasing cargo launch capability, and that just went up in a really big bang, and likely will not be back to full operational capability for at least a year, and will then have an additional backlog.

Sold ASTS when it popped over 130. No interest at the moment.

See the kids are buying SPCE, because they are ******s and trust Reddit. Apparently there was a post last week claiming that SPCE was an early ticket to SPCX. Note the run up on the rumor mill. Was a good day trade Friday. Suspect it will be active around SPCX IPO, and a lot of newbie investors are going to get burned. I will be holding the gasoline and matches.
 

Which States Have the Highest Capital Gains Tax?​

Most states’ long-term capital gains tax is identical or correlated to their state income tax.

For example, California treats all capital gains as ordinary income. It makes no difference whether you’ve held an asset for 60 days or 60 years. Upon the sale, you will be required to pay the state between 0% and 13.3% of your profit.

The states with the highest state capital gains tax are as follows:

  • California (up to 13.3%)
  • Minnesota (up to 9.85%)
  • New Jersey (up to 10.75%)
  • New York (up to 10.9%)
  • Oregon (up to 9.9%)
It's on a sliding scale just like fed taxes, which is why they say "up to x.x%

Which States Do Not Tax Capital Gains?​

There are only eight states that do not tax capital gains:

  • Alaska
  • Florida
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire*
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Wyoming
*While New Hampshire does not tax income or capital gains, it does tax investment income such as interest and dividends.
 
XtremeJ said:
See the kids are buying SPCE, because they are ******s and trust Reddit.
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Sounds like my FFL, Robinhood account, bought Gamestock or whatever that meme stock was, got locked out of his account and lost most everything he put in. Now he asks me what he should do, "Um, put some effort into how the market works, do your own research on stocks and funds, and don't use real money until you know what your doing/having success", which he won't do because he spends his time putting together Lego Star Wars ships and such.
 
Blast from the past that pinged my watch list last week. Nokia, NOK, earnings late July.

There has been some pretty large insider buying announced in the past couple weeks, CEO, CFO and some other board members. The Board is usually prohibited from trading 30 days before earnings, and the stock was in a long period of consolidation until it broke above 10.xx

Was just going to day trade it, but got pretty heavy this morning when it broke 15.xx and added more on the pull back to test. Now up over 1.35 so I should be able to take off most of my position before close, and leave the rest as runners. I was going to hold, but the move today and the chance to zero out a trade and let it ride will be too tempting. Can always buy in later.

Might be worth a look if it retraces this week, but insiders buying is always a strong signal.

NOW, another monster day, with large gap up open. Those June 94 calls are up 1000%, $4 to $40 (this morning). Stuck with my method and took profits all the way, so only have a few runners left. Massive trade. Back in LLY today, those 1200 calls ran to $20 last week, now back to $4ish. See if we can get to double dip, tighter stop than usual.

Have to travel for work later this week, and won't trade until Tuesday, so trading light, and not taking new positions, well .....
did take FIG today on the 27 break, but will close that today or tomorrow, HLT calls working but slowly. CRWD wanting to double in less than 2 months, I was pumping this last summer when it failed to break and stay over 500, added when it was low 400's.
 
NVIDIA is branching out.

Nvidia has emerged as the world’s most valuable company by dominating the market for artificial intelligence chips in the data center. Now the company is expanding its prowess to chips that will serve as the main processor for personal computers, entering an arena that’s long been ruled by Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm and Apple.

During a keynote address at Taiwan’s Computex conference on Monday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a new PC processor made alongside Microsoft. The RTX Spark superchip, which Huang also referred to as the N1X, debuts in the fall on a fresh line of Windows PCs from Microsoft, Dell, HP, ASUS, Lenovo and MSI.




“This reinvention of the computer is as big of a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone,” Huang said, pointing to the fact agentic AI will run across all the new computers.

“Microsoft and Nvidia are going to reinvent the PC,” he added. “This is the first completely reengineered, reinvented line of PCs that has happened in 40 years.”

Nvidia’s initial plan is to release more than 30 laptops and 10 desktops with the new chip over time, an Nvidia spokesperson said.
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If HPQ is green at all tomorrow, I'll probably cash out. If red, I'll give it 3 red in a row before giving up.

Might have to figure out how to join the meme space craze. Get in late, leave early instead of hold on for dear life


Edit: won the lottery total also :smokin: bought $100 worth of scratchers, hit $10 on $10 ticket. Reinvested those gains and had $110 of fun for $100 :grinpimp: so surely my luck is looking good for the next couple weeks at least
 
rockota said:
reinvention of the PC?

"we're putting more AI in everything and you'll have no choice"?????
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That's the fear.

In mid-May, OpenAI announced that an internal AI model had disproved the Erdős unit distance conjecture, a famous problem in discrete geometry that had stumped human mathematicians for the last 80 years.

OpenAI gave several mathematicians early access to the result and published their reactions. Tim Gowers—who won the Fields Medal, the most prestigious prize in mathematics—wrote that “there is no doubt that the solution to the unit-distance problem is a milestone in AI mathematics.”

University of Toronto professor Daniel Litt wrote that “this is the first example of a result produced autonomously by an AI that I find exciting in itself, as opposed to as a leading indicator.”

It’s arguably the first time that an AI system has found a proof resolving a major open conjecture. That’s impressive, but I don’t view it as a radical break from the previous trajectory of AI progress in mathematics.

Three years ago, LLMs struggled to solve arithmetic problems. It was only last year that LLMs started acing high school mathematics competitions.

When I attended the Joint Mathematics Meetings—the largest annual mathematics conference in the world—in January, I learned that AI systems were starting to contribute to mathematical research, but only in constrained settings. It took significant human interpretation to turn an AI output into a publishable theorem.

OpenAI’s new result is the next step in this progression. The AI model cleverly applied existing ideas drawn from several subfields of mathematics to create a full proof. But it didn’t pioneer any genuinely new techniques. The result has since been cleaned up and extended by human mathematicians.

This points to a medium-term future where human mathematicians and AI models complement each other: AIs have a broader knowledge of past work than any human alive and much more willingness to grind through tedious proof strategies that aren’t likely to work. But humans can still think more deeply about any one problem and ask more interesting questions.






That might not last. AI systems have been improving at math so rapidly that it’s unclear what role, if any, human mathematicians will play a decade from now.
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Record highs again, all indices, 9 days in a row for SPY, something that has not taken place in more than 30 years.

Some excellent earnings reports after the bell, so .......
when does the magic ride stop?
or do we see rotation into a different sector?

way too may charts are just parabolic, too much irrational exuberance, and in a few days the $25K limit on day trading goes away. Going to be lots of young folks getting into serious trouble, and will burn their accounts to the ground.

Reviewed all my stops today, headed out for the rest of the week, don't destroy the market until I am back
 
XtremeJ said:
Record highs again, all indices, 9 days in a row for SPY, something that has not taken place in more than 30 years.


way too may charts are just parabolic, too much irrational exuberance, and in a few days the $25K limit on day trading goes away. Going to be lots of young folks getting into serious trouble, and will burn their accounts to the ground.
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I have learned to listen . . . . . .. . :idea:
 
XtremeJ said:
Record highs again, all indices, 9 days in a row for SPY, something that has not taken place in more than 30 years.

Some excellent earnings reports after the bell, so .......
when does the magic ride stop?
or do we see rotation into a different sector?

way too may charts are just parabolic, too much irrational exuberance, and in a few days the $25K limit on day trading goes away. Going to be lots of young folks getting into serious trouble, and will burn their accounts to the ground.

Reviewed all my stops today, headed out for the rest of the week, don't destroy the market until I am back
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I keep feeling the same way. But, when I look at my holdings to try to decide what I should sell to lock in gains, I'm having a hard time finding much that is at all over priced.

META 18x PE .99 PEG ratio --I've held it since it crashed in 2022 and can't ever justify selling. It's just a mega cash cow.
GS 18x PE -- Price at ATH. --I've stated my position on this one many times in these discussions. Lots of enormous deals this year will keep the $$ flowing. My largest holding doubling my next highest.
NVDA 25x PE .66 PEG. --I'm seriously considering adding to position.
GOOGL 26x PE 38% Margins --Earnings just keep crushing estimates.
DVN 8x fwd PE .69 PEG ratio. --High oil seems sticky for now and even if it drops some the next 2 quarters earnings will have to be high.
XOM 14x fwd PE --This one I have sold a little and will keep doing so when it's over $150 (cur $154 so will sell a few shares today).
MSFT PE 26x --This one has been tricky. It's gotten hurt due to it being in the software category, but it's also a heavy cloud player. I do wish I sold when it was $100 higher than here, but it's hard to bet against one of the biggest companies in the world that consistently wins.

Other smaller core holdings that all have low to very reasonable PEs but keep going up in price: RIO, NUE, MO, EPD

Edit: Others that I have sold part of EQNR (Norwegian oil co). It still has a low PE but I want to lock in some energy gains (see XOM above) and I'm sick of paying foreign taxes on the divs.

Ford. Sold part of position after the run up to $17 (didn't hit the top) just because I'm getting sick of looking at this loser on my screen. I'm finally in the green and am going to ease out of it.
 
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100% of my retirement and investment money is in RY. I know I’m stupid, but it’s going well so far…

As I understand it, it is not at all a risky stock to own.

I manage all my own accounts, and I’m happy with the returns, not sure how I could be doing better. At this high it sure does seems risky though…

Here’s the charts for 15, 10, and 3 years.

It’s nerve wracking, wondering when it’s gonna crash, and wondering how much the dollar is losing value…

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Muckin_Slusher said:
100% of my retirement and investment money is in RY. I know I’m stupid, but it’s going well so far…

As I understand it, it is not at all a risky stock to own.

I manage all my own accounts, and I’m happy with the returns, not sure how I could be doing better. At this high it sure does seems risky though…

Here’s the charts for 15, 10, and 3 years.

It’s nerve wracking, wondering when it’s gonna crash, and wondering how much the dollar is losing value…

IMG_4906.png


IMG_4905.png


IMG_4904.png
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That was my dad, different symbol but he was 100% in on one. It was great while it was great, dropped roughly a third when he retired and he's been bitter about it ever since :rasta:
 
Provience said:
That was my dad, different symbol but he was 100% in on one. It was great while it was great, dropped roughly a third when he retired and he's been bitter about it ever since :rasta:
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Did he sell it all the day he retired?? Did it not recover?

This one also pays a dividend of a few % and I think that’s also somehow included in the chart, though I’m not sure how…
 
Roc Doc said:
PSA

Double check what your particular brokerage is providing for data. For example if I go to the "Positions" tab I'll get a $+/- cost basis for a particular stock, in this case it's DX, and because the market is closed today, I assume not all the numbers are updated. My purchase price was $13.85 which is what the cost basis is based on, with a current price of $13.84 so I should be down a penny a share, but in after hours it gained a bit and now sits at $14.09 but the cost basis doesn't reflect that. I'll check it in the AM and it should be corrected once the market opens.

Still learning ****.
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I always was lazy and put our money in Roth S&P 500 index funds. It has worked pretty well.
 
Muckin_Slusher said:
Did he sell it all the day he retired?? Did it not recover?

This one also pays a dividend of a few % and I think that’s also somehow included in the chart, though I’m not sure how…
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He had to transfer from company owned 401k more or less, moved it to a normal managed fund set and it has recovered some, the previous that he was in is still down
 
Ive been trying to follow along and learn from this thread, but my heads just not in it or im very distracted lately with business and personal things happening. with that said.....

say a guy had 35k to play around with, not in an ira, its a cash account. what would be a fast smart thing to do with it that would net some decent gains?

Im leaving our 4 ira accounts with the "financial advisor" for now. to say im less than pleased with the job he's doing is a huge understatement. i need to manage this myself for more growth and to quit paying him to twiddle his thumbs while collecting fees every month. so the goal of this cash account it to learn with so i can safely move the other 4 to being self managed. tia
 
Penny stocks and AOL. Seriously, consider paying the tax and convert it to a Roth account. Invest in S&P 500 index funds and just sit back and watch it grow without stress, I think they are called ETF’s now. It has worked for me.
 
Rhinoliner said:
Penny stocks and AOL. Seriously, consider paying the tax and convert it to a Roth account. Invest in S&P 500 index funds and just sit back and watch it grow without stress, I think they are called ETF’s now. It has worked for me.
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Wife and i both have roth accounts and regular ira accounts. I want to leave this account liquid so I dont have penalties if I decide to cash it out. i'll pay gains on it as i go, IF it has gains. its not making me any money now with the current advisor.
 
My investment partner and I both have accounts with Schwab, and both have had managed accounts, and we both have taken self control of our investments. So first things first, Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard are the usual go to firms, and all three will have very low expenses and vast research tools. I think you're still working, so you should be looking at growth funds, or stable double digit dividend funds where you buy shares of the fund with the quarterly or monthly dividends (DRIP). I quit working two years ago, so have three main funds that pay my monthly expenses, and a bunch of others that are on DRIP, but I'm actively managing and monitoring them, it's not a set it and forget it approach. SPY (which tracks the S&P500) is up 27% in the last year, but of course that is no guarantee that it will do the same in the next 12 months, (read, I am not a licensed financial advisor, just someone that found what works for me). And QQQ (which tracks the tech heavy NASDAQ) is up over 40% during that same time period. So you could pretty safely put half and half in those two funds while you are learning other strategies.

Keep in mind a rising tide lifts all boats and the market has been on a ripper except for a big dip last March/April, so when the market is this hot it makes everybody look like a genius, but a pullback WILL happen at some point, but even the best quants don't know exactly when.
 
Roc Doc said:
My investment partner and I both have accounts with Schwab, and both have had managed accounts, and we both have taken self control of our investments. So first things first, Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard are the usual go to firms, and all three will have very low expenses and vast research tools. I think you're still working, so you should be looking at growth funds, or stable double digit dividend funds where you buy shares of the fund with the quarterly or monthly dividends (DRIP). I quit working two years ago, so have three main funds that pay my monthly expenses, and a bunch of others that are on DRIP, but I'm actively managing and monitoring them, it's not a set it and forget it approach. SPY (which tracks the S&P500) is up 27% in the last year, but of course that is no guarantee that it will do the same in the next 12 months, (read, I am not a licensed financial advisor, just someone that found what works for me). And QQQ (which tracks the tech heavy NASDAQ) is up over 40% during that same time period. So you could pretty safely put half and half in those two funds while you are learning other strategies.

Keep in mind a rising tide lifts all boats and the market has been on a ripper except for a big dip last March/April, so when the market is this hot it makes everybody look like a genius, but a pullback WILL happen at some point, but even the best quants don't know exactly when.
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I understand. I just don’t want to look at this stuff every day. It can eat at you. We let Fidelity, Vanguard and Zacks manage our stuff based on our priorities. I wish I could say it keeps me sane.
 
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